Greg Cote's NFL divisional playoff picks

We’ll count the wild-card round as a solid start to the postseason crescendo of our 34th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald. Highlights: Bull’s-eyed both of our upset picks with Commanders (+3) winning at Tampa Bay and Rams (+1 when we made the pick) beating Vikings. Lets’ run the table from here!

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Wild-card round: 5-1, .833 overall; 3-3, .500 vs. spread.

Playoffs: 5-1, .833 overall; 3-3, .500 vs. spread.

Final regular season: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAYOFF PICKS

— FRIGID WEATHER, HISTORY OF NO. 1 SEEDS: If you like your football played in snow or at least extreme cold, this is your weekend. Three of four divisional games (all but the one in Detroit’s dome) will be majorly affected by weather. As for the value of a No. 1 seed, 1 vs. 1 has happened in only 14 of 50 Super Bowls (28%) since 1975, when NFL implemented postseason seeding. But since that time the SB champ has been a No. 1 seed 52% of the time (26 of 50), with 16 from the NFC and 10 from the AFC. That suggests, historically, that a Kansas City-Detroit Super Bowl is unlikely, but that either the Chiefs or Lions winning it all is around even money.

AFC

No. 4 TEXANS (11-7) at No. 1 CHIEFS (15-2)

Line: K.C. by 8.

Cote’s pick: K.C., 23-17.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, ESPN/ABC.

Two-time champion Chiefs are off a bye and healthy, with wrecking-ball DT Chris Jones expected back from a calf injury sustained in a Week 16 win over these same Texans. K.C. has won four in a row against Houston including 27-19 last month, and has won six straight divisional games at Arrowhead. Texans D forced four turnovers in handling the L.A. Chargers in the wild-card round, but Patrick Mahomes won’t be as sloppy-generous. Chiefs are 8-0 at home this season, and weather also factors as a big K.C. edge. Temps expected in the 20s and cloudy, though rain/snow seems unlikely. It won’t be as dangerous-frigid as what crushed the Dolphins in last year’s playoffs — but still very cold. Houston can stay close if it can duplicate last week’s showing, but don’t see C. J. Stroud, in these conditions, besting a strong Chiefs defense or outscoring Mahomes. The run at a historic three-peat continues for K.C., although Chiefs are 0-6 against the spread when favored by 7-plus this season, and we’ll saddle up that trend again in what figures a low-scoring Saturday afternoon-into-evening.

No. 3 RAVENS (13-5) at No. 2 BILLS (14-4)

Line: BAL by 1.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 30-27.

TV: 6:30 p.m. Sunday, CBS/Paramount+.

Oh my. Few divisional playoff matchups feel Super Bowl-big like this. It’s Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson in an epic duel between the two MVP betting favorites. It’s a near-pick-‘em game. And the weather expected Sunday night in Orchard Park, N.Y., is an added element of unpredictability. Temps in the mid-teens and dropping with a chance of snow is forecast, along with wind gusts that could make it feel closer to 0 degrees by kickoff. Edge to the Bills? I would say no team (or right-minded human) prefers these conditions, and might further argue the elements could benefit a Ravens offense that would love Derrick Henry to snow plow with 25 or 30 carries. Buffalo handled Denver easily in the wild-card round as did Baltimore against Pittsburgh, but this is a sharply escalated challenge for both. Ravens at home crushed Bills, 35-10, on a Sunday night in late September, with Henry pounding for 199 yards. Don’t expect a rout this time, especially with BAL’s top WR Zay Flowers likely out, but that first meeting was no fluke, either. I slot Ravens as best team in AFC. Am I right? The real proving starts here.

NFC

No. 6 COMMANDERS (13-5) at No. 1 LIONS (15-2)

Line: DET by 9.

Cote’s pick: DET, 34-20.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Fox.

Call this one The Hunger Game. Detroit is after its first franchise championship since pre-Super Bowl 1957. Washington, in its first postseason since 2020, last won it all in 1991. The dome atop Ford Field removes weather as a variable and makes this pick more cut-and-dried than the other three this weekend. Detroit is clearly better and, rested off a bye, will show it. Washington barely got past Tampa in the wild card and faces the NFL’s highest-scoring offense in the balanced attack Jared Goff pilots. The Commanders very possibly missing top LB Bobby Wagner to an ankle injury won’t help, and I see Lions top target Amon-Ra St. Brown getting the best of CB Marshon Lattimore. St. Brown has had six-plus catches in every game this season at home, where Goff put up a 110.3 passer rating. Lions also expect to have RB David Montgomery back from his knee injury to augment dynamic Jahmyr Gibbs. Washington might need a turnover-free game from rookie Jayden Daniels to hang close in this one. Lions are 4-2 vs spread (3-1 at home) when favored by 7-plus points.

No. 4 RAMS (11-7) at No. 2 EAGLES (15-3)

Line: PHI by 6.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 24-20.

TV: 3 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

Off a dispatch of Green Bay in the wild-card round, the Eagles are the Super Bowl contender not talked about enough. But the Rams last week had the most impressive win of the playoffs thus far with that 27-9 spanking of Minnesota. L.A. is optimistic TE Tyler Higbee will play while Philly will be without LB Nakobe Dean — the combo inching this game a bit closer. But Eagles are 9-1 at home and may gain an edge from the weather. Temps in the 30s expected, cloudy and with a chance of light rain or snow. Birds have won two straight and eight of past nine over Rams including 37-20 in November, when Saquon Barkley barreled for 255 yards and two TDs. LAR’s defense has been better since, though, during a five-game win streak before sitting starters in Week 18. Eagles sacked Matthew Stafford five times in that first meeting and the pass rush will be a big factor again Sunday. L.A. is 5-4 outright as an underdog this season, but Jalen Hurts is 3-0 as a starter at home in playoffs, and I see that streak continuing.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of afternoon Thursday.]