Commentary: Cold weather teams win Super Bowls

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Tribune News Service on Jan 16, 2025

Published in Football

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The Super Bowl is fast approaching, now just a few weeks away. The reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are vying for their fourth title in six years and an unprecedented third in a row. Teams like the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions may have something to say about that, each focusing their sights on winning their first ever Super Bowl championship.

There are 32 NFL teams. Of these, 15 are located in cities with moderate or mild winter weather conditions (like Miami, Carolina, Seattle and Phoenix), while 17 are in cities that experience four seasons with snow and colder weather conditions (like Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Cincinnati and Kansas City).

Since the 1999-2000 season, moderate weather teams have won just five of the past 25 Super Bowls. However, 12 of the past 25 Super Bowl losers have been moderate weather teams. This means that moderate weather teams can make it to the Super Bowl. They just have not fared as well as cold weather teams in winning the game.

This begs the question: Is there something about moderate weather teams that has kept them from finishing the job and winning Super Bowls compared to their cold weather team competitors?

On the surface, this makes no sense. The Super Bowl games are typically played in areas with warm weather, such as Florida, Arizona or Georgia, or when in cold weather areas, in domed stadiums. However, since teams play half their games at home and practice around their home city, their home stadium may be a critical factor contributing to how well they can adapt to different road venues.

Independent of the weather, teams that play in outdoor home stadiums have won 21 of the past 25 Super Bowls (since 2000). Even the losers have been mostly outdoor home stadium teams, with 20 of the past 25 in this group. Overall, there are 20 teams that play in outdoor home stadiums and 12 teams that play in domed home stadiums. Purely by chance, teams that play in domed home stadiums are under performing their outdoor home stadium competition.

Note that this season, 10 of the 14 playoff qualifiers are cold weather teams and nine of the 14 play in outdoor stadiums. Among the final eight, six are cold weather teams and five play in outdoor stadiums.

This data do not explain why teams that play in domed stadiums have struggled to win Super Bowls. One can speculate that playing and practicing indoors in a controlled environment, with no rain, snow, or wind to contest with, softens the players, especially when facing teams that routinely play outdoors.

Indoor stadiums are certainly good for the fans, who are protected from severe weather, making their game experience more palatable and enjoyable. Yet this begs the question: Would these fans be willing to endure less than ideal, non-climate-controlled games in exchange for Super Bowl championships?

Of course, cold climate teams in outdoor stadiums are not a guarantee of success. The Cleveland Browns have yet to win a Super Bowl or even make the big game. They have always played in an outdoor stadium facing cold weather. The Detroit Lions have a similar record, though they play in a domed stadium. They hope to change this dry spell this year, as they hold the top seed in the NFC.

The Buffalo Bills have been to four Super Bowls, falling short each time. They too want to change this record this year, as they hope to ride their regular season success all the way to the Super Bowl.

There are of course many other factors that influence team performance. Stadium surface (natural grass versus artificial turf ) are certainly high on that list. Yet of the past 25 Super Bowl winners, 12 have played on grass at their home stadium and 13 have played on artificial turf. Home playing surface appears to make little difference in winning Super Bowls.

The data suggests that weather and venues may make a difference. Yet games are played by people. This means that all the skill advantages in the world can be neutralized with one tweaked hamstring or hand laceration that prevents star players from performing at their peak when they most need to.

Seasonal weather and playing conditions do provide some interesting food for thought. As we approach Super Bowl Sunday on Feb. 9, do not be surprised to see more cold climate teams positioned to win the Vince Lombardy Trophy. There is never any guarantee, yet the data suggests that this has been a persistent trend over the past 25 years.

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Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor in computer science in the Grainger College of Engineering at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. He used his expertise in risk-based analytics to address problems in public policy.

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