Greg Cote's Week 14 NFL picks

Big disparity in last week’s picks, with a solid 12-4 mark outright but an unsatisfactory 6-10 against the spread. (Fortunately we’d built enough cushion ATS to still be comfortably plus-side for the year.) We nailed another Upset of the Week with Steelers’ win at Cincy, but missed a few other upset calls including (ouch) Miami-Green Bay. Highlights: Had Jaguars-with-points vs. Houston and a near-Exacto on the Arizona-Minnesota score. It was Vikes, 23-22; I had it 24-22. Time to bounce back ATS. Let’s, gird our loins. sharpen our sword and slay the Evil Betting Line! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Lions (11-1, -3) over Packers (9-3), 31-27.]

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Week 13: 12-4, .750 overall; 6-10, .375 vs. spread.

Season: 128-67, 6568 overall; 101-91-3, .526 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 14 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

CHARGERS (8-4) at CHIEFS (11-1)

Line: KC by 4.

Cote’s pick: KC, 21-16.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

OK, so Packers at Lions might have been the real GOTW, but we do a separate pick for Thursday games, so this is a solid default choice that fills the Sunday night stage very well. Reigning champ Chiefs have made an art of winning ugly or barely, and Jim Harbaugh has impressively turned the Chargers into a defensive force — one capable of upsetting K.C? Expected cloudy but clear with temps in high 30s is actually a weather break for LA. Chiefs are playoff-clinched but still vie for No. 1 seed and Bolts are in wild-card battle, so this one could ratchet to a playoff feel. K-City has not covered the spread in six straight games, and I give LAC a medium shot at an outright upset here. But! Chiefs are 6-0 at home and have won six in a row over the Chargers, and K.C. has the run D to bottle up L.A. just like it did in a 17-10 win in late September. Chiefs also enjoy a lift from return of RB Isiah Pacheco. Key to game: Chiefs must protect Patrick Mahomes’ blind side against a B-plus Bolts sack unit.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BENGALS (4-8) at COWBOYS (5-7)

Line: CIN by 5.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 27-24.

TV: 8:15 p.m.; Monday, ESPN/ABC.

“AAAWWWK!” carols the Upset Bird. “Cowbaawwk!” Back around July and August, this matchup had “Monday Night Football” salivating with anticipation. Super Bowl preview? Seemed plausible then. Now, MNF gets perhaps the NFL’s two most disappointing teams (with only San Fran and maybe Miami in that sorry mix). Joe Burrow has been a diamond in a mud bog for Cincy, tasked with outscoring a terrible Bengals defense that has allowed an average of 37.7 points and 446 yards in its three-game losing streak. For Dallas, QB Cooper Rush has gotten acclimated, Rico Dowdle has buoyed the run support, and return of Micah Parsons has lifted the defense. Dallas has a rest edge after playing last Thursday, and has won five straight in series, and also five straight over Cincy played in Dallas. Let’s saddle up them ‘Boys! “The latter may or may not be a play on Jimmy Johnson’s, ‘How ‘bout them ‘oys!’ from the glory days,” notes U-Bird. “Jimmy Johnsaawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 14:

Thursday night pick was @Lions (11-2, -3) over Packers (9-3), 31-27: Detroit clinches playoffs with win.

@Dolphins (5-7, -5 1/2) over Jets (3-9), 24-20: The Dolphins have beaten the Jets three games in a row and seven of the past eight in this AFC East division rivalry — and won eight consecutive meetings played in Miami. NYJ last won a trip to the 3-0-5 in 2015. Fireman Ed hadn’t even begun publicly complaining about his lack of video screen time yet. Obama was president. The latest meeting finds both teams in the throes of disappointing seasons, but Fins on the upturn of a 3-1 run and Jets on an 0-3 skid entering Sunday. The Planes’ run game has been tepid in the three-game slide, further aggravating the much-discussed woes of Aaron Rodgers. Counterpart Tua Tagovailoa has been really good since his return from a concussion, is 4-0 in his young career vs. the Jets and gives Miami an edge at QB over Rodgers that figures as the main difference in this game. (This will be the second head-to-head for Tua and Aaron. In the first, on Christmas 2022 in Miami, Rodgers’ Packers won, 26-20, as Tagovailoa threw three INTs.) Dolphins also own a rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday. That point spread, though ... it feels a tad too large. NYJ’s pass defense ranks No. 2 in the league in fewest average air yards allowed, and this remains a heated rivalry that even a pair of losing records cannot dampen. I like Miami with some confidence outright, but am leaning to visitors to stay inside the bet line. After all, even the embattled, beleaguered Mr. Rodgers — quietly 9-1 on TDs/picks during his past five games — might be due for something good (or at least not terrible) to happen.

@Titans (3-9, -3 1/2) over Jaguars (2-10), 23-16: Couple of AFC South bottom dwellers playin’ out the string. Jax in particular could not be lower: Officially eliminated from the playoff hunt, on a five-game losing streak, 0-6 on the road, and now QB Trevor Lawrence sidelined by a dirty hit concussion as well as pending left-shoulder surgery. With Will Levis 7-2 on TDs/picks since returning from injury, lean Titans to win and cover in Nashville.

@Vikings (10-2, -6) over Falcons (6-6), 27-23: Minnesota clinches playoff ticket with win and a few other results falling right. Atlanta is a decent road team (3-2) and Falcons and Vikes both have been strong in close games. This should be another of those. Sam Darnold is 6-0 on TDs/pick over past three games, but see Kirk Cousins pumped to face his former team and rising from a three-game swoon to keep ATL inside the bet-line.

Saints (4-8, -4) over @Giants (2-10), 20-17: Drew Lock starts at QB again for an NYG team on a seven-game skid and eliminated from playoff contention. Giants are 0-6 at home and averaging 10 points, but Saints are 1-4 on road, without Swiss Army Knife Taysom Hill and with a leaky defense. With a rest edge after playing on Thanksgiving, see Big Blue as a big upset threat, but I’ll hedge and settle for them covering.

@Eagles (10-2, -13) over Panthers (3-9), 28-16: Philly has won eight straight, clinches playoff spot with a win here if other results align and still guns for No. 1 NFC seed. So don’t expect a letdown after that big win against Ravens. Eagles also know Carolina has been much better the past month, winning twice and then losing last two to Chiefs and Bucs by combined six points. Panthers have covered as dogs in four straight games so lean that way again getting 13.

@Steelers (9-3, -6 1/2) over Browns (3-9), 31-13: Browns beat Steelers, 24-19, on a Thursday night in snowy Cleveland just two weeks ago — the memory still raw for Mike Tomlin and squad. It won’t happen again as the weather in Pittsburgh cooperates at around 50 and sunny. Bonus treat: T.J. Watt and Myles Garrett dueling for DPOY. Browns have won two in a row and three of past five vs. their rivals 115 miles away, but PIT has won three in a row at home by a 10-point average.

@Buccaneers (6-6, -6 1/2) over Raiders (2-10), 24-20: Las-make-it-Lost Vegas reels with eight straight L’s and is eliminated from any and all postseason hope. Tampa has lifted to .500 with two wins in a row — playoff contention in the weak NFC South. See big numbers from Baker Mayfield vs. woeful Raiders pass D. But Vegas is 4-2 ATS when a dog by this many points, and we’ll lean another cover.

Seahawks (7-5, +2 1/2) over @Cardinals (6-6), 23-21: Upset! Seattle enters on three-game win streak and has beaten Arizona six straight times including 16-6 just two weeks ago. Cardbirds have lost two in a row to cede the NFC West lead to Hawks. Oddsmakers have their reasons, but series trend suggests that Seattle — a good road team (4-1) hoping to have WR DK Metcalf back — should not be the team getting points here.

Bills (10-2, -3 1/2) over @Rams (6-6), 34-23: Buffalo was first to clinch division title (sorry, Dolphins) and has inched ahead of K.C. to rep AFC in Super Bowl at some sportsbooks as Josh Allen rises to consensus league MVP fave. Bills’ seven-game win streak includes 30-plus points in past six and the Rams’ middling defense is not one to stop this juggernaut. L.A.’s 28th-ranked run-stopping is especially vulnerable here. James Cook fantasy owners: Smile.

@49ers (5-7, -4) over Bears (4-8), 23-17: Chitown canned coach Matt Eberflus after six straight losses capped by that Thanksgiving Day debacle in Detroit, but four of those L’s including the last three have been by three points. Bears have not quit, in other words. Injury-wracked San Fran has lost RB Christian McCaffrey (again) and now backup Jordan Mason, too — but hopes to have defensive star Nick Bosa back. Bears have rest edge but like Niners at home vs. a team 0-5 on the road.

OFF THIS WEEK

— Broncos (8-5, next vs. Colts): First, let’s all celebrate the last week of teams being off. Bye-bye, byes! Denver is trying to hang in AFC wild-card hunt after Monday night home win over Browns closed Week 13.

— Colts (6-7, next @Broncos): Indy survived Patriots for a 25-24 road win on a brave-call two-point conversion run with 12 seconds to play. It kept Nags’ (slim) playoff hope alive and officially eliminated New England.

— Commanders (8-5, next @Saints): Washington battered Tennessee to end a three-game losing skid and resuscitate its chances in the NFC playoff hunt. Can Jayden Daniels hang onto rookie of year trophy?

— Patriots (3-10, next @Cardinals): Heart-breaking last-second home loss to Indy officially and mathematically ended New England’s playoff chances, which were already on life-support.

— Ravens (8-5, next @Giants): Disappointing home loss to Philly in big interconference game. Now, after NYG next week, Baltimore hosts Pittsburgh in what could be battle for AFC North lead.

— Texans (8-5, next vs. Dolphins): Houston has stumbled since 5-1 start and didn’t impress much in 23-20 win over lowly Jaguars. But Texans will be well-rested when they host Miami next week.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of afternoon Thursday.]