Greg Cote's Week 8 NFL picks

Our warm streak is cranking closer to hot as the rough start to our season begins to shrink in the rearview. We were solid both ways last week at 11-4 straight-up and 9-6 against the betting line. Nailed our Upset of the Week with Steelers beating Jets (“Aawwk!”), had Vegas-with-points vs. Rams, and bull’s-eyed Texans’ cover in Green Bay — just missing an Exacto perfect score. Byes have Week 8 off so we get the full 16. Let’s go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Rams (2-4, +3) over Vikings (5-1), 27-24, in upset.]

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Week 7: 11-4, .733 overall; 9-6, .600 vs. spread.

Season: 64-43, .598 overall; 54-50-3, .519 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 8 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

COWBOYS (3-3) at 49ERS (3-4)

Line: SF by 4.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-24.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

The NFC kings limp into Sunday night a combined 6-7, both feeling like this is must-win. I say kings because San Fran (19 times) and Dallas (14) are Nos. 1-2 in most NFC championship game appearances, including six head-to-head from 1970 to 1994. But there’s dust on the champagne bottle as two storied clubs try to shake off disappointing starts. Cowboys are in off a bye but 49ers have won three straight in series, including 42-10 last season. Boys hope to have back Micah Parsons (ankle) and Niners the same with Deebo Samuel (pneumonia), but both are very iffy to play. Brock Purdy threw three interceptions in loss to K.C. last week and Dak Prescott had a pair of picks in loss to Detroit before the bye, so turnovers may well sway this result. Give San Fran a small edge with the ball, a bigger one on defense plus the home field for the pick. But lean proud, desperate Cowboys to stay close enough for the cover.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

BEARS (4-2) at COMMANDERS (5-2)

Line: CHI by 3.

Cote’s pick: WAS, 23-20.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” trills the Upset Bird. “Because crystal ball tells me Jayden Daniels will play, that’s why. Crystal baawwk!” Our picking Rams over Vikings on Thursday night probably was the real Upset of the Week, but this one’s close. The rookie of the year-contending Comms QB Daniels is iffy with sore ribs, and we couldn’t know as of this pick being made Thursday afternoon if he would play. (His ribs refused comment.) So this pick has fingers crossed. Both teams are out to prove they’re for real as NFC contenders, and it should be a tasty rookie-arm duel with Caleb Williams vs. (we hope) Daniels. It’s Washington’s more explosive offense vs. Chicago’s better defense. With Commanders 3-0 at home and Bears 0-2 away, this upset pick leans unabashedly and hopefully on venue. “Let’s go home!” adds U-Bird, casting a double entendre-tinged play on words. “Washington Commaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 8:

Thursday night pick was Rams (2-4, +3) over Vikings (5-1), 27-24 Upset!

Eagles (4-2, +2 1/2) over @Bengals (3-4), 27-23: Upset! Cincy has won two in a row but is 0-3 at home, despite Joe Burrow cracking at 75% this year with eight TDs/one pick along the Ohio River. Bengals also have not lost in past five meetings with Philly (three wins, two ties), though they haven’t met since 2020. All that makes tempting the home team here. But I’m riding with Saquon Barkley and a powerful Eagles ground game vs ‘Nati’s subpar run D.

Ravens (5-2, -8) over @Browns (1-6), 24-17: New Browns QB Jameis Winston cannot possibly be worse than now-injured Deshaun Watson, though Winston can be a turnover factory and has zero margin for error here. Like Baltimore and its unstoppable dynamic duo of Lamar Jackson and Derrick (King) Henry. Like Clevers to cover a big bet line, though. Ravens coming off a taxing Monday night win and division rivals have split the past three seasons.

@Lions (5-1, -11) over Titans (1-5), 31-13: This risks as a sandwich game ripe for Detroit to overlook sad Titans, with Lions coming off emotional last-second win against unbeaten Minnesota and trip to Green Bay on deck. Thing is, Motown’s good enough and this opponent bad enough to take lightly and still cruise. Tennessee is plagued by turnovers, Will Levis or Mason Rudolph at QB hardly matters, and a bad offense got worse with trade of WR DeAndre Hopkins to Chiefs.

Jets (2-5, -7) over @Patriots (1-6), 24-16: New England owned this series with 15 straight wins before NYJ won to close last season and then dominated 24-3 in Week 3. Now the struggling AFC East rivals meet with Pats served up as an antidote for Aaron Rodgers and a Planes squad looking for the runway after four straight losses. Rodgers and Davante Adams will start clicking. Pats show a bit more pop with Drake Maye but have failed to cover in six straight losses.

@Buccaneers (4-3, +2 1/2) over Falcons (4-3), 24-21: Upset! And maybe a crazy pick, I would admit. Risky, at least, with Baker Mayfield missing his top two targets in injured Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Tampa also on short week after playing Monday night. So why the pick? ATL needed 509 yards passing from Kirk Cousins to barely win a Week 5 shootout vs. Bucs, and Cousins was bad in last week’s 20-point loss to Seattle. I’m riding the home field to tilt a 31-31 all-time series toward the Bucs.

@Dolphins (2-4, -3 1/2) over Cardinals (3-4), 24-17: All indications as of me making this pick on Thursday afternoon were that Tua Tagovailoa would quarterback the Dolphins on Sunday for the first time since his Sept. 12 concussion. That’s big. Game-changing big. Maybe season-saving big for Miami. Some say don’t count on Tagovailoa to be a super hero and make everything right. I don’t. But he will jump-start this offense. His return is why Miami is favored against Arizona instead of a likely underdog. The entire franchise lifts with Tagovailoa’s return. After his first practice Wednesday, favorite receiver Tyreek Hill said, “It almost made me cry” seeing him back on the field. Emotion matters in sports. Confidence matters. The Fins have both now. Miami’s offense has averaged 10 points in the past four games. That’s just south of awful. Tagovailoa needn’t be a super hero to fix that. He just needs to be the QB who made the Pro Bowl last season. His return is what makes me like the home team in the Cardinals’ first trip here since 2016. Miami’s top-rated pass defense will limit Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr., while Zona’s 26th-ranked pass D will be a welcome mat for the return Tagovailoa. And the return of hope.

Packers (5-2, -3 1/2) over @Jaguars (2-5), 27-20: Warning! Major letdown/overlook risk for Green Bay, with disappointing Jags sandwiched between last week’s big win against Houston and a home date with division rival Detroit up next. More turnovers by Jordan love and a clean sheet for Trevor Lawrence is how an upset would happen. But I’m betting Pack marshals the focus. Gee Bees’ defense has been pretty solid, and Jax’s D ranks 30th in points allowed.

@Texans (5-2, -5) over Colts (4-3), 24-18: Battle atop AFC South finds Houston 3-0 at home and winner of three of past four over rival Indy, including 29-27 in Week 1. Colts hope to have RB Jonathan Taylor back, although Houston’s vulnerability on D is in the air, where Anthony Richardson (48.5%, 3-6 TD-I) has been pretty bad, especially on road. C.J. Stroud has been better at home (nine TDS in three games), and let’s bank on that again.

@Chargers (3-3, -7) over Saints (2-5), 19-17: N’Awlins has rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday while Bolts played Monday. But that’s about only edge I would give the road team here. Saints expect third straight start by rookie sack-magnet Spencer Rattler with Derek Carr still ailing, and WR Chrs Olave (concussion) may be out again. Fleur-de-lis D has allowed 84 points in past two losses, and LAC leads NFL in scoring defense under Jim Harbaugh. Still lean Saints to cover.

Bills (5-2, -3) over @Seahawks (4-3), 27-20: Buffalo has rolled over five so-so foes and lost to two good ones. Seattle is in-between — inconsistent, sometimes pretty good — which makes this a thorny pick. Josh Allen is 12-0 on TDs/picks and if Hawks can end that no-INT streak they have a shot. But Geno Smith will be missing DK Metcalf, and I like Buffs RB James Cook vs. a SEA run D allowing 146.1 yards a game and 5.0 per carry.

@Broncos (4-3, -10 1/2) over Panthers (1-6), 26-10: Carolina QB Andy Dalton sprained his thumb in car accident, so 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young will go at QB — as trade rumors swirl around him, with Miami among rumored possible suitors. Bet line shot to double digits with the news. Young might struggle vs. top-tier DEN pass D that hopes to have CB Patrick Surtain back from a concussion. Big point spread but lean Broncos cover coming off extra rest/prep after Thursday game.

Chiefs (6-0, -9 1/2) over @Raiders (2-5), 27-9: Kansas City is last unbeaten despite Patrick Mahomes having an ordinary season. He gets help with trade for DeAndre Hopkins from Titans, though injury looks to delay D-Hop’s Chiefs debut. K.C. had won six straight and 18 of 21 in series before Vegas won most recently last year. Look for Chiefs to resume their dominance. Remember in preseason Vegas trolled Mahomes on social media with Kermit the Frog making fun of his voice? Payback.

@Steelers (5-2, -6) over Giants (2-5), 24-13: Monday night stage leans on two storied franchises, but only one of them playing well. NYG has totaled 10 points in two straight losses, and Pittsburgh’s No. 2-ranked scoring defense won’t offer much remedy. Pitt crushed Jets last Sunday night, so make it a New York, New York double prime-time beatdown by Steelers. More big Najee Harris-led ground game will make Russell Wilson look good again.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]