These California elections could tilt US House control. What to know about races, candidates

House of Representatives control runs through California, experts say, where several incumbents are at risk of losing their seats.

The San Joaquin Valley holds California’s most vulnerable incumbent, according to projections from Inside Elections, a nonpartisan election analysis organization.

A neighboring race could also go either way, making this politically mixed stretch of farmland one of the most important areas of the country for determining whether House Democrats or Republicans hold the power in 2025, or at least how much of a majority either party has.

The winners here and in other competitive California races may not be declared for weeks after Election Day.

These 10 congressional districts with close November 2024 contests were the same number in 2022, when California helped secure a razor-thin majority for Republicans. Many of the districts on the list are held by the GOP. Democrats would need to flip four seats nationwide to take the majority.

Inside Elections, The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate swing elections on a sliding scale from “likely” to “leans” to a “tossup” for either political party. “Tilts,” a unique rating to Inside Elections, is close to a tossup. Control of the House itself is a tossup too, according to these organizations. Their projections have shifted over time, and it’s possible they change again as Nov. 5 nears.

Here are California races on election analysts’ radars. The ratings below are a consensus of the analysts’ organizations, as not all agree on every election.

—3rd Congressional District

Likely Republican

Freshman Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif., faces Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist, in this Lake Tahoe district that reaches into the northeastern Sacramento suburbs and down to Death Valley. Analysts have been eyeing this district one that could grow bluer over time, but all agree it’s likely going for the Republican this year.

The 3rd district holds Alpine, Inyo, Mono, Nevada, Placer, Plumas and Sierra counties, plus parts of El Dorado, Sacramento and Yuba counties.

—9th Congressional District

Likely Democratic

Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., faces Stockton Mayor Kevin Lincoln, a Republican, in this San Joaquin County district. While more voters there are registered Democrats than Republicans, the 9th chose the GOP gubernatorial candidate over Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2022 by 5 percentage points.

Analysts cited national Republican enthusiasm to flip this seat as a reason why it’s likely, but not definitely, they’re picking Harder. He was first elected to Congress in 2018. The 9th takes in most of San Joaquin County and parts of Contra Costa and Stanislaus counties. It’s anchored by Stockton.

—13th Congressional District

Tossup

Rep. John Duarte, R-Calif., and former Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray, are in a bitter rematch for this San Joaquin Valley district that might not have a clear winner for weeks after Election Day.

While Cook and the Crystal Ball say it’s a tossup, Inside Elections says it tilts Democratic. This makes Duarte the second most vulnerable incumbent nationwide, according to a list compiled by news outlet Roll Call based on the Inside Elections ratings.

Duarte, a freshman, hasn’t shown the same resilience against challengers as other California incumbents who’ve been in office longer. The farmer and businessman beat the 10-year Assemblyman in 2022 by just four-tenths of a percentage point.

The district has more registered Democrats than Republicans and a growing no-party-preference population. It’s one of more than a dozen districts nationwide held by a GOP congressman that President Joe Biden would have won in 2020 if current legislative boundaries had been in place. The district would have picked Biden over former President Donald Trump by 11 percentage points. Congressional districts were redrawn based on 2020 Census data.

The 13th district has a Latino-majority voting-age population and a large proportion of young people, two groups that historically have leaned Democratic in California. Shifts in voter registration have added some Republican support in the 13th since 2022.

The San Joaquin Valley tends to have lower turnout compared to the rest of California. Low turnout, particularly among Latino and young voters, tends to give older, white, more conservative voters a disproportionate influence on elections here. Still, presidential general elections tend to spur the most turnout.

The 13th holds all of Merced County and chunks of Madera, Stanislaus, Fresno and San Joaquin counties.

—22nd Congressional District

Tossup

Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., and former Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Calif., are also in a San Joaquin Valley rematch. This race too might take weeks to decide. In 2022, Valadao bested the 10-year Assemblyman by 3 percentage points.

While Cook and Inside Elections say it’s a tossup, the Crystal Ball changed ratings to say it leans Republican because of Valadao’s history of winning when Democrats at the top of the ticket prevailed.

Valadao, a dairy farmer, was first elected to Congress in 2012. He lost his seat in the 2018 “blue wave” midterms on a razor-thin margin, then won it back in 2020 on a similarly slim margin.

The 22nd, which has more Democrats than Republicans and a growing no-party-preference bloc, includes most of Kings County and parts of Tulare and Kern counties. It would have picked Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020.

Like the 13th, the 22nd also has a Latino-majority voting-age population and a high proportion of young voters. And it also tends to have low turnout compared to the rest of the state.

—27th Congressional District

Tossup

Rep. Mike Garcia, R-Calif., faces Democrat George Whitesides, former CEO of spaceflight company Virgin Galactic, in this northern Los Angeles County district.

Garcia, a Navy veteran, first entered Congress after a 2020 special election. Whitesides, a new challenger for Garcia, was chief of staff of NASA in former President Barack Obama’s administration.

—California’s 40th Congressional District

Likely Republican

Rep. Young Kim, R-Calif., who has represented this area since 2021, faces Democrat Joe Kerr, who served as an Orange County firefighter for more than three decades.

The 40th holds parts of Orange, San Bernardino and Riverside counties.

—California’s 41st Congressional District

Tossup

Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., and Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, are on the ballot again in this Riverside County district.

The Republican, first sworn into Congress in 1993, had his closest House race in over a decade against Rollins in 2022. Calvert won by less than 4 percentage points.

The analysts are mixed on rating this district — Cook says it’s a tossup, Inside Elections says tilts Republican and the Crystal Ball says leans Republican.

—45th Congressional District

Tossup

Rep. Michelle Steel, R-Calif., faces Democrat Derek Tran, a consumer rights lawyer, small business owner and veteran. The 45th takes in parts of Orange and Los Angeles counties.

Steel was first elected to Congress in 2020; she previously was on the Orange County Board of Supervisors, as chair and before that vice chair.

All the analysts shifted their projections since the March primary to say this race grew closer toward Election Day.

—47th Congressional District

Leans Democratic

Republican Scott Baugh, an attorney who ran here in 2022, and State Sen. Dave Min, a Democrat will battle in November to succeed Democratic Rep. Katie Porter. Porter lost her Senate bid in the March primary.

Baugh was the Republican leader from 1999 to 2000 in the Assembly. He served in the Legislature from 1995 to 2000. Min has been in the Legislature since 2020.

Unlike Cook and the Crystal Ball, Inside Elections says the race is a tossup.

—49th Congressional District

Leans Democratic

Rep. Mike Levin, D-Calif., and Republican Matt Gunderson, a business owner, vie here in November.

The 49th covers northern coastal areas of San Diego County. Levin has held congressional office since 2019.

Cook and Inside Elections shifted their ratings over the year toward leaning Democratic, while the Crystal Ball still rates the district as likely Democratic as of Oct. 24.