Presidential election betting odds tighten heading into weekend

Todd Dewey, Las Vegas Review-Journal on Nov 1, 2024

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LAS VEGAS — Former President Donald Trump is still the clear betting favorite to win the election, but Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds have improved in the past two days.

On Wednesday, Harris was the biggest underdog she had been since she entered the presidential race in July. Trump had soared to a -210 favorite at BetOnline, and Harris was at +180.

On Friday, Trump dropped to -173, while Harris moved to +148 (meaning bettors have to wager $173 to win $100 on Trump to win the election or $100 to win $148 on Harris to prevail).

BetOnline, an offshore sportsbook that is not regulated in the U.S., reported that the odds changed because steady money has come in on Harris over the past two days by a 4-to-1 margin.

The book lowered Trump from -190 to -180 on Thursday, then pushed the price back to -185 after it reported a $41,914 bet on Trump.

But a flurry of wagers on Harris, including a $35,000 bet at +165 and $20,000 bet at +160, caused the line to move again.

“Kamala continues to gain some momentum,” BetOnline.ag brand manager Dave Mason said Friday on X (@DaveMasonBOL).

The line also has dropped at BetMGM, which is taking wagers on the election only at its sportsbook in Ontario, Canada.

BetMGM analyst John Ewing posted on X (@johnewing) that Trump was a -225 favorite and Harris a +175 underdog on Wednesday. The line dropped at MGM to -190/+150 on Thursday and dipped again Friday to -185/+140.

The numbers also have moved at electionbettingodds.com, which averages live odds from FTX.com, Betfair.com, PredictIt.org, Smarkets.com and Polymarket.com.

Trump’s chances have dropped at the site from 61.2%, or -158, on Monday to 56.5%, or -130, on Friday. Harris’ chances have improved from 38.3%, or +161, on Monday to 43.0%, or +133, on Friday.

Trump still strong in Nevada

Trump is still the clear favorite on the site to win Nevada.

In fact, his chances have improved from 63.5%, or -174, on Monday, to 66.0%, or -194, on Friday to win the state, which has gone to a Democrat the past four elections. Harris’ chances have dipped from 35.5%, or +182, on Monday to 34.0%, or +194, on Friday.

Betting on politics isn’t permitted at U.S. sportsbooks.

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