ORLANDO, Fla. – The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday increased again its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of its 7 a.m. tropical outlook, the NHC said a tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea was producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “Afterward, the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally northwestward, by early next week.”

The NHC gave it a 40% chance of development in the next two days and 80% chance of development in the next seven days, an increase from earlier Monday.

If it were to spin up into tropical-storm strength, it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms, 11 of which have developed into hurricanes, and five of those have been major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or more.

The most recent, Hurricane Rafael, fell apart over the weekend in the central Gulf of Mexico after striking Cuba last week.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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