The National Hurricane Center on Monday increased its forecast odds a Caribbean system will develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of its 7 p.m. EST tropical outlook, the NHC said an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the south of Hispaniola over the central Caribbean Sea was associated with a tropical wave.

“Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form late this week as the system moves westward into the western Caribbean Sea,” forecasters said. “After that, the disturbance is expected to slow down and meander through the weekend.”

The NHC gave it a 20% chance of development in the next two days and 60% chance of development in the next seven days, an increase from earlier Monday.

If it were to spin up into tropical-storm strength, it could become Tropical Storm Sara.

So far, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has had 17 named storms, 11 of which have developed into hurricanes, and five of those have been major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or more.

The most recent, Hurricane Rafael, fell apart over the weekend in the central Gulf of Mexico after striking Cuba last week.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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