Rafael downgrades to tropical storm, NHC still tracking system in Caribbean

Elainie Barraza, Orlando Sentinel on Nov 9, 2024

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ORLANDO, Fla. — What was Hurricane Rafael downgraded to a tropical storm as the system still heads west into the Gulf of Mexico and continues to be no threat to land for now, the National Hurricane Center kept track of another system with low odds to develop into the season’s next tropical depression or storm.

As of the NHC 10 a.m. tropical outlook, a trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the central Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

“Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or two while it moves westward to west-northwestward. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible across the Bahamas through Sunday,” forecasters said.

The NHC gave it a 10% chance of development in the next two to seven days.

Meanwhile, Rafael has downgraded to a tropical storm as the system continues to move west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of the NHC 10 a.m. tropical outlook, Tropical Storm Rafael was 290 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, moving west-northwest at 6 mph. Its maximum sustained winds are 65 mph and tropical-storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles from the center.

“The storm is expected to slow down and meander over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday into Monday, then turn toward the south or south-southwest by Monday night,” forecasters said.

Rafael became the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. It was the 11th hurricane and fifth major hurricane of the above-average season.