MIAMI — Hurricane Rafael, now a Category 2 storm, is expected to slowly trek west across the Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

This path is lined with less friendly conditions than the Caribbean — biting wind shear, dry air and cooler waters — that could work together to weaken the storm. By the time it nears Mexico on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said, Rafael could be a tropical storm again.

Thursday morning, a tropical storm warning for the Dry Tortugas was discontinued. No other watches and warnings remain. Forecasters said the storm could cause “life-threatening” surf and rip current conditions throughout the Gulf.

As of Thursday’s 10 a.m. update, Rafael had maximum sustained winds of 100 mph and was headed west-northwest at 9 mph.

On Wednesday, Rafael made landfall in western Cuba as a Category 3 hurricane, knocking out the nation’s beleaguered electrical grid once again. In October, the unexpected Hurricane Oscar slammed the eastern side of the country, killing eight people and damaging 20,000 homes.

The hurricane center also lowered the chances that a new tropical disturbance could form north of Puerto Rico and Haiti. As of 7 Thursday morning, forecasters said it had a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next two to seven days.

The next name on the list is Sara.

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