President Emmanuel Macron’s decision three weeks ago to call snap elections overturned any semblance of political stability in France and opened the door to the possibility of the first far-right government in the modern republic.

Not only did his call to dissolve the National Assembly shock both the public and markets — sending some risk indicators to levels last seen during the euro-area crisis — it also took Macron’s own cabinet by surprise.

Left unanswered was the question: Why did Macron put himself in this position if it wasn’t necessary?

He made the decision on the night of June 9 after Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally got twice as many votes as his centrist coalition in the European Parliament election. Macron argued that he couldn’t ignore the results while also warning that “the rise of nationalists and demagogues” was threatening France and Europe.

Fundamentally, Macron is forcing voters to make up their minds about whether they prefer his pro-business, pro-Europe, pro-Ukraine vision for France or Le Pen’s agenda of dramatically cutting migration, stepping back from European Union rules and undoing some of Macron’s pension reforms.

It could put National Rally into a position where it would have to govern for the first time, creating a tangible track record ahead of the 2027 presidential election, when Macron won’t be able to run due to term limits.

Sunday’s voting will be the first round, with runoffs on July 7.

Here are the main issues to watch:

Winners and losers

As of Friday — the last day polling companies are allowed to publish projections ahead of the vote — National Rally and its allies had a strong lead, on course to get 36.2% of the vote, according to Bloomberg’s poll of polls.

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