Any group that is able to get an absolute majority of 289 or more seats will control the lower-house of parliament. It can easily pass laws and a government backed by that group would be safe from the threat of no-confidence votes.

If the group that gets a majority is from a different party than the president, which has happened three times since France’s current form of republic came into effect in 1958, it results in type of power-sharing arrangement called cohabitation. The president generally selects the leader of the party that obtained the majority as prime minister. But a combination involving the National Rally would be the first time it’s involved a party that’s never governed before.

If a group gets the most seats but is short of an absolute majority, then it could form a minority government — like Macron’s current situation. But that also depends on the president, who has sole authority to appoint a prime minister.

A hung parliament would make it difficult to legislate since the government would need to find extra votes outside of its party for every bill. If the government were to use a constitutional provision that allows it to bypass a vote, it would open itself up to a no-confidence vote and could be overturned if rival parties came together.

National Rally President Jordan Bardella has said he would refuse the job if his party and its allies don’t get an outright majority in the National Assembly.

Markets

Macron’s decision to call the election triggered turmoil in markets in France, leading to an equity selloff that initially wiped almost $200 billion off the value of stocks.

The yield on 10-year government notes at one point on Friday rose to the highest since November. That widened the extra yield investors demanded for French debt over similar German government bonds to 86 basis points — the most since 2012. The benchmark CAC 40 stock index meanwhile fell to its lowest since January.

Policies

The three leading groups in the elections are proposing radically different paths for France.

Macron’s party stands for continuity, with more pro-business tax cuts and reforms, along with a commitment to curb spending. Responding to concerns of voters, his group has added pledges to improve the incomes of low earners by tweaking taxation, and measures to help home-buyers.

The National Rally has promised to cut immigration, toughen France’s stance on law and order with more prison places and minimum sentencing, and cut value-added taxes on energy and fuel. Following a sell-off in French assets, the party has delayed some of its more costly measures — potentially indefinitely depending on a review of public finances.

The New Popular Front has the most radical economic program. In the short run, it says it would freeze prices of consumer staples, abolish Macron’s pension reform and raise the minimum wage 14% and public sector salaries 10%. The extra annual spending, which is forecast to reach €150 billion in 2027, would be entirely financed by taxing businesses, finance, and the wealthiest.

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