A left-wing alliance — including the Socialists, Communists, Greens and the far-left France Unbowed — was on track to get 28.3% while Macron’s centrist group was projected to get 20.4%.

Seat projections

First round vote shares don’t tell the full story — the decisive factor shaping the next government is the distribution of seats in the 577-member National Assembly after the second round.

While the two-round ballot makes seat predictions tricky, the National Rally and its allies are projected to become the biggest group in the lower house of parliament with between 238 and 281 members, according to Bloomberg’s final poll of polls before the blackout on Friday evening.

When the first round results are in on Sunday, polling companies will have much more data to refine those projections. That will be crucial information for parties to set their campaign strategies, and for investors trying to assess what kind of instability is coming.

Turnout

A significantly greater number of people are expected to cast ballots than in several prior legislative elections, according to surveys. That’s important in France’s system, because it raises the chances of more than two candidates making it to the second round, creating less predictable three- or even occasional four-way races, known as triangulaires and quadrangulaires.

In 2022, there were only eight triangulaires. This time, the number could swell to between 160 and 200, according to a poll of 2,005 adults by Odoxa June 26-27.

The interior ministry will publish interim figures for turnout at midday and 5 p.m.

Cohabitation or minority government

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