“We continue to urge Maduro and his representatives to allow all candidates to run in inclusive and competitive elections,” the spokesperson said. “We have been clear that we are willing to maintain sanctions relief if Maduro and his representatives uphold their commitments. We don’t have anything to announce.”

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters on Monday the same message although in stronger terms, putting the emphasis on reimposing sanctions if progress is not made.

“I believe it when I see it,” Berg said.

Berg believes that calculations by Biden officials to stabilize Venezuela´s economy to stem migration are misguided, citing data showing that, in the first three months of this year, more Venezuelan migrants traveled through the Darien gap — a perilous stretch of jungle on the borders of Colombia and Panama popular with migrants heading to the U.S.-Mexico border — than during the same period last year.

In an interview with Miami Herald columnist Andres Oppenheimer, Machado warned that Maduro’s victory in July would mean millions more Venezuelans would try to leave the country.

A poll published last week by Venezuelan firm Meganalisis showed that 40% of Venezuelans say they would consider leaving the country if Maduro is declared the winner in the election in July.

“It’s also about the type of regime; it’s about repression at home,” Berg said. “People are leaving repressive conditions. It’s not just about having a little bit of extra oil money on the side or a couple more neighborhoods in Caracas getting some renovations. The numbers haven’t proved that six months of sanctions relief keep Venezuelans in place.”

By focusing on the immigration question, experts argue the administration has given Maduro more leverage. Talking to a Spanish TV station in Miami, Republican Florida Sen. Marco Rubio said last week the Biden Administration “has put us in an extremely difficult position because now Venezuela, through Maduro, is blackmailing the United States” by refusing to accept deportation flights from the U.S.

In a January letter, Rubio, along with Florida Republican Sen. Rick Scott and Republican Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy, told Biden, “The time to act is now” to reimpose sanctions on Maduro for breaking the Barbados agreement. But increasingly, the calls to reimpose sanctions are coming from both parties. Maryland Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin issued a joint statement with Rubio and Cassidy last week calling for imposing targeted sanctions on Venezuelan officials responsible for the crackdown on opposition candidates and campaign staffers.

While Biden officials have resisted such calls, experts believe that absent a change in behavior by Maduro, renewed sanctions could at least contain his bad behavior in Venezuela and the region.

“If the purpose of sanctions is to deny resources, raise the costs of oppression, delegitimize the regime in the eyes of not just the global community but the financial community, reduce their ability to conduct their affairs and engage in corruption, identify individuals who are engaged in illegal activities and bring the force of law, the sanctions have worked,” Farnsworth said. “If the sanctions didn’t have any impact, why would the Maduro regime care so much about lifting them?”

Ultimately, if the U.S. doesn’t take any action at this point, Farnsworth asked, “Who’s gonna believe anything we say?”

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