Three things to look for in Chiefs-Bills AFC Championship Game matchup
Published in Football
KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Chiefs fans got their wish.
The Buffalo Bills defeated the Baltimore Ravens 27-25 Sunday in an entertaining playoff game in Orchard Park, N.Y., and advanced to face the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.
Chiefs fans who voted in a Kansas City Star poll had said they preferred having the Chiefs face the Bills in the title game.
The AFC Championship Game kicks off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Sunday at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. It’ll be a rematch of the Bills’ 30-21 win over the Chiefs on Nov. 17.
It’s also a rematch of last season’s AFC Divisional playoff game. The Chiefs won that one, 27-24.
Here are three things to look for in the game.
1. The turnover battle
Buffalo was by far the NFL leader in turnover margin this season at plus-24. No. 2 on the list was the Pittsburgh Steelers at plus-16.
The Bills had a plus-3 turnover margin in Sunday’s win over the Ravens. Remarkably, Buffalo hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any of its 19 games this season.
In their 30-21 win over the Chiefs, the Bills twice intercepted quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the last time he’s been picked off in a game. The Chiefs haven’t turned the ball over in their last eight games.
2. Conversion success
In the win over the Chiefs, the Bills converted 60% of their third downs (9 of 15). That included six times when Buffalo had 6 or more yards to gain, although two of those conversions were via penalty.
Buffalo also was the second-best team in the NFL this season in fourth-down conversions, getting the first down 72.7% of the time (16 of 22) in the regular season.
CBS Sports noted that the Bills are particularly lethal when facing a fourth-down play with less than 3 yards to gain. Buffalo is successful 85.7% of the time (18 of 21) in those situations, which includes the postseason.
3. On the run
Running back James Cook rushed for more than 100 yards in three of the Bills’ past six games. The Chiefs limited Cook to 20 yards rushing on nine carries, but he did score a pair of touchdowns.
Quarterback Josh Allen is the bigger threat. He picked up 55 yards on the ground against the Chiefs and had a game-clinching 26-yard touchdown run.
The Bills had the most rushing touchdowns (32) in the NFL this season.
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