Greg Cote's NFL wild-card playoff picks

This is our 34th season of NFL picks in the Miami Herald in a tradition founded in 1991, and we thank you for coming along for the ride as always. We wrapped 10-6 both straight-up and against the spread in Week 18. That included five ‘dogs-with-points in covers by the Panthers, Cowboys, Bears, Saints and Rams. Also called Texans’ win over Titans, a small outright upset. We navigated a tough week pretty well as several teams rested key players to mess with betting lines. For the regular season our final .684 overall is above average, quite good, and our .521 ATS is in the favorable range — we had a solid year. Let’s stay hot as we keep it going through the Super Bowl!

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Week 18: 10-6, .625 overall; 10-6, .625 vs. spread.

Final season: 186-86, .684 overall; 139-128-5, .521 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WILD-CARD PLAYOFF PICKS

AFC

BYE: No. 1 seed CHIEFS (15-2): Kansas City understandably lost to Denver to end the regular season because Patrick Mahomes and other starters sat. But 38-0!? That followed a season of close calls much more than dominance for the two-time defending champions. Now, unlike the past two years, ‘Are the Chiefs vulnerable?’ looms a fair question entering their try for a historic three-peat.

No. 5 CHARGERS (11-6) at No. 4 TEXANS (10-7)

Line: LAC by 3.

Cote’s pick: LAC, 23-16.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Saturday, CBS/Paramount+.

Houston lucked to win an easy division, is overrated and feels like the worst of 14 teams in the Super Bowl tournament. And so I see the AFC South champs losing at home to the conference’s top wild-card team. C.J. Stroud has taken 52 sacks, and Chargers pass rush (46, sixth ranked) will bring the heat. For L.A., Justin Herbert’s efficiency has been buoyed by RB J.K. Dobbins’ return from injury. Coach Jim Harbaugh’s Bolts are 5-2 outright when favored by three or fewer this season, while the Texans are 1-5 as underdogs.

No. 6 STEELERS (10-7) at No. 3 RAVENS (12-5)

Line: BAL by 9 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BAL, 27-20.

TV: 8 p.m. Saturday, Prime Video.

Nemesis Pittsburgh had won four straight and eight of past nine over its AFC North rival — almost all close and low-scoring — before Baltimore won 34-17 on Dec. 21. I like Ravens again in teams’ first playoff meeting since 2014, but back to pattern of one-score games even though Steelers stumble in on on a four-game skid. Pitt was roughed up for 220 rushing yards in last month’s game, and Derrick Henry should romp again augmented by the dual-threat, MVP-headed Lamar Jackson, despite missing injured WR Zay Flowers. Something else that makes BAL an underappreciated Super Bowl threat: It’s defense, after a bad start, has been really good lately.

No. 7 BRONCOS (10-7) at No. 2 BILLS (13-4)

Line: BUF by 8 1/2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 30-17.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS/Paramount+.

AFC East champ Bills take on a Denver squad that snuck into the final wild-card spot ahead of Cincy and Miami. Wouldn’t have liked the Dolphins’ chances, and don’t like the Broncos’ either. Denver wasn’t great on road this season (4-5), where Bo Nix’s was much worse than at home, and Buffs are unbeaten in western New York. Sean Payton has coached nine postseason wins and might have a trick or two, but Denver is 2-6 when allowing 100-plus opponent rushing yards, and Josh Allen and James Cook will get that.

NFC

BYE: No. 1 -seed LIONS (15-2): Detroit last celebrated an NFL championship in Bobby Layne’s 1957, way pre-Super Bowl. The No. 1 song that year was “All Shook Up” by a young phenom named Elvis Presley. Today the Lions are SB favorites. It’s an amazing story that is great for the league, the sport and downtrodden fans everywhere. (Even you, Dolfans.) The question now: Can the historic underdog handle the weight of being the front-runner?

No. 7 PACKERS (11-6) at No. 2 EAGLES (14-3)

Line: PHI by 4 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PHI, 24-20.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

NFC East champs host conference’s final wild-card team, and this pick presumes that both QBs, Jordan Love (elbow) and Jalen Hurts (concussion) will both play despite each being questionable. Love has not thrown a pick in seven straight games, and Gee Bees will need more of that, and lots of Josh Jacobs, to fashion an upset. Philly beat Pack 34-29 in Week 1 in Brazil but it was only that close because of three Birds turnovers as Hurts threw for 278 yards and Saquon Barkley hoofed it for 132. Lean Pack to cover, with a medium outright upset shot.

No. 6 COMMANDERS (12-5) at No. 3 BUCCANEERS (10-7)

Line: TB by 3.

Cote’s pick: WAS, 31-27.

TV: 8 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

Upset! Like the NFC’s second wild-card team to visit a home surprise on the conference’s South champs. Both are hot. Washington closed season on a five-game win streak and Tampa on a 6-1 roll. Bucs beat Comms 37-20 in Week 1, but that was a long time ago, and Jayden Daniels is a lot better now. Baker Mayfield strafed Washington for four TD passes in first meeting, but Commanders pass defense has shored up since, and allowed only 190 air yards per game during its five-game win streak. And Tampa (5-4) had not been dominant at home.

No. 5 VIKINGS (14-3) at No. 4 RAMS (10-7)

Line: MIN by 1.

Cote’s pick: LAR, 28-20.

TV: 8 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

[Note: As of my making this pick mid-afternoon Thursday, there remained a chance this game might be moved to Glendale, Ariz., and played Monday on account of the wildfires ravaging parts of Greater Los Angeles.] Wherever and whenever it is played, I like the West champ Rams over the wild card-one Vikes in a small upset. L.A. has beaten Minnesota three straight including 30-20 in October, and Sam Darnold is coming off a tough performance in last week’s 31-9 statement rout-loss to rival Detroit. It’ll be the pressure against Darnold in his first career playoff start. I’ll take the pressure and the Rams.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of afternoon Thursday.]