Joe Starkey: Steelers-Ravens has legacies, futures and reputations at stake
Published in Football
PITTSBURGH — This Steelers-Ravens showdown needs no endorsement from me. It's a playoff game. But it's also fraught with bigger-picture implications on both sides.
For starters, it feels like one of the more significant games of Mike Tomlin's career.
A loss, especially a lopsided one, arguably would mark the low point of Tomlin's 18-year tenure. He will have overseen a historic collapse, losing five straight games to end the season. He has only lost five in a row, at any point, one other time (2009).
More importantly, Tomlin will have failed to win a playoff game for the eighth consecutive season, this time losing to his fiercest rival after blowing a two-game divisional lead in December.
Conversely, beating the Ravens would mark one of the great wins of Tomlin's career. Hitting the road as a nearly 10-point underdog and dispatching John Harbaugh's Ravens? Outside of Tomlin's two AFC championship game victories and the Super Bowl win, what would rank higher?
It's not like Tomlin's job is on the line here, although one could make the argument it should be — the argument being quite simple: The fifth-highest paid coach in all of sports never wins big games anymore.
Why national pundits such as ESPN's Mike Greenberg believe that is such an insane take is beyond me. How many years without a playoff win would be too many for Greenberg, should we reach eight? Ten? Fifteen? Does he know that a loss would leave Tomlin with three playoff wins in the past 14 years?
A win would absolutely mean the difference between a successful season and an abject failure, and the offseason narrative around Tomlin would be shaped accordingly (further playoff results pending).
Russell Wilson has even more at stake. A month ago, the Steelers quarterback looked like a lock for a long-term deal (he's playing on a one-year contract). Now he is anything but. If he plays great and leads the Steelers to victory, that kind of talk becomes sensible again.
If Wilson struggles or flat-out stinks — maybe to the point of getting pulled — and the offense sputters for the fifth straight game? It would almost be unimaginable to see him in a Steelers uniform for his age 37 season, let alone on a lucrative new deal.
Which brings us to George Pickens, the guy the Ravens are calling as "soft" as Lamar Jackson's new cologne. His act is getting stale, for sure, but his talent is undeniable. With one year left on his rookie deal, Pickens is a candidate for a new contract this offseason — and if he doesn't get it, one could only imagine the hissy fits at training camp.
Is he worth a long-term investment? Is he an attractive trade candidate? A great game against the Ravens might tilt the scales toward "yes" in both cases. Another disaster might make the Steelers or any team fools for casting their lot with Pickens. We'll see if he rises or shrinks in the biggest game of his career.
And what of the legacies of T.J. Watt, Cam Heyward and Minkah Fitzpatrick? Is this their last best chance to win a playoff game together?
Watt turns 31 next season and has never won a playoff game. He is in danger of becoming the Dick Butkus of his generation, a legendary defensive player who never wins a playoff game. Minkah's a few years younger, but his body is at least as old as Watt's in NFL years. He hasn't won a playoff game, either, and Heyward, who has experienced one playoff win, turns 36 in May.
I'd say the game is huge for offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, too, but he's falling up faster than Matt Rhule. Somehow, after three failed seasons in Atlanta and a Matt Canada-like year in which his Steelers offense ranks 29th in red zone efficiency, 16th in scoring and dead-last in first-down efficiency, Smith has at least two teams calling for head coaching interviews.
That those two teams are the Bears and Jets says a lot. They are two of the few — along with the likes of the Raiders, Cardinals and Dolphins — that have gone even longer than the Steelers without a playoff win.
The Steelers, by the way, haven't scored an opening-drive touchdown since Terry Bradshaw had hair, or least since Mason Rudolph was starting. It's up to 19 games.
Justin Fields and Najee Harris also have interesting cases. If Fields were to come in and spark an improbable win, his future here or elsewhere could look different. Harris is likely playing for a contract elsewhere.
On the Ravens side, it's all about Harbaugh and his quarterback.
Lamar might win his third MVP award, which would surpass his number of playoff wins (he's 2-4) and his win total against the Steelers (also 2-4). You wonder how many legit championship shots he'll get, having squandered a few already.
It's a crowded field of really good quarterbacks in the AFC, and not all are going to reach a Super Bowl, never mind win one. This is another prime opportunity for Lamar. A loss here, against his nemesis, would be a crushing blow and lead to an offseason filled with the same old questions.
Namely, this one: Why doesn't the Michael Jordan of the NFL ever look like Jordan when the chips are down?
Harbaugh, too, would be shredded for again falling short with a superstar quarterback. It might be as devastating as any loss in Harbaugh's 17-year career, to fail at home in the wild-card round as a huge favorite against the Steelers.
It would also mark Harbaugh's ninth loss in the past 11 games against Tomlin, so why should anybody be shocked if it happens?
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