Lions-Vikings showdown boasts NFC North's historic might

The Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings will square off at Ford Field in Week 18 with the NFC’s No. 1 seed and the NFC North title on the line.

As if the occasion wasn’t enticing enough, how’s this: Per Elias Sports, the game will feature the most combined wins (27 if Detroit loses to the San Francisco 49ers on Monday night, 28 if the Lions win) between two teams in any regular-season game in NFL history. The previous record (25) was set twice, once in 2005 and another time in 2007. No matter which way you slice it, this game is going to be one of epic proportions.

The NFC North has been historically great this season, and it hasn’t just been the two teams at the top. The Green Bay Packers, who lost another close one to the Vikings in Week 17, are an 11-win team.

Entering Detroit’s Week 17 game on Monday Night Football, the NFC North has a combined 42 wins on the season — just one shy of tying the NFL record since the 2002 division realignment after the 2023 AFC North and 2022 NFC East both had 43 combined victories. Barring a tie scenario in Week 18 — the Packers also play the Chicago Bears — the division is all but guaranteed to reach 44 wins.

One can only imagine the division records the NFC North would’ve set if the Chicago Bears (4-12) didn’t entirely fall off a cliff after their 4-2 start.

If the Lions beat San Francisco on Monday night, it’ll officially mark the first time in NFL history that a 14-win team is destined for the wild-card round. And if the Packers beat the Bears in Week 18, they’ll set a new record for wins (12) by a team that finished third in its own division.

Best in the biz

Though the Lions could very well let a second NFC North title slip from their fingers, their division record since the start of 2022 (14-3) is on par with a pair of teams who’ve secured at least three straight division titles. The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills are the only two teams with an equal or better record than Detroit in their division since the start of 2022. This season, all three of these teams are a perfect 5-0 within their division, entering Week 18.

The Chiefs (5-0 in the AFC West) are the only team in the NFL to have a better division record (15-2) than the Lions since the start of 2022, although that has the potential to change in their Week 18 finale against the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City already has the AFC’s No. 1 seed locked up and figures to rest some of their starters at Denver, which is fighting tooth and nail to keep its playoff hopes alive and can punch its ticket with a win over the Chiefs’ second-stringers. Kansas City faltered slightly in 2023, going 4-2 against the AFC West, but can finish off its second undefeated division record in three seasons by defeating the Broncos this weekend.

The Buffalo Bills (5-0 in the AFC East this season) have a comparable division record over the last three years (14-3), but it comes in a division that’s historically been a one-horse race most seasons. Entering Week 18 of this season, the Miami Dolphins (8-8) are the closest team to Buffalo, and they’re a full five games back. The New England Patriots (3-13), meanwhile, are currently in line to have the No. 1 pick entering Week 18, while the New York Jets (4-12) aren’t far behind, currently holding the No. 7 pick.

The Dolphins gave the Bills a run for their money in 2023 and finished with the same 11-6 record, but in 2022 and 2023, it was more of the same from the Jets and Patriots, as both teams have finished below .500 in three consecutive seasons.

The Lions’ dominance in the NFC North under Dan Campbell cannot be understated, especially because of how good this division has been in recent years — and particularly in 2024. Even in the 2022 season, when Detroit failed to make the playoffs, it did very well against the NFC North — and these games were a catalyst for Detroit, as they nearly made a late-season push for the postseason in 2022.

Detroit is 5-0 in the NFC North this season, including a thrilling 31-29 victory at Minnesota in Week 7. After clinching their first division title in 30 years against the Vikings on Christmas Eve last season, they’ll look to ring in the new year by making it back-to-back.

A closer look

On aggregate, the Lions have outscored NFC North opponents 148-111 this season. Three of their five wins so far have been decided by one score, with all three of those games — two late field goals off the foot of kicker Jake Bates and another against the Bears that came down to a Hail Mary attempt — being decided on one of the game’s final plays. The margin for error has been razor thin.

Detroit’s ability to pull out close games makes the Vikings a formidable opponent for the division title. Minnesota is 9-1 in one-score games — its only loss coming to Detroit in Week 7 — this year and 26-9 in one-score regular-season games since head coach Kevin O’Connell took over in 2022. Detroit, meanwhile, is 6-2 in one-score games this season and 15-11 in one-score games since 2022, although five of Detroit’s losses came during the dismal start of that 2022 season. Over this period of time, the Lions have won four straight games against Minnesota (4-1 against O’Connell overall) and are 2-1 in one-score games against the Vikings.

No matter what happens at Ford Field on Sunday night, it’s shaping up to be an all-time finish for one of the best divisions — if not the best — in NFL history.

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