Sam Farmer's Week 18 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 14-2 (.875); season 177-79 (.691). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-7 (.536); season 135-119-2 (.532). Times Pacific.

Cleveland Browns (3-13) at Baltimore Ravens (11-5)

Saturday, 1:30 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 17 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The AFC North is within reach, so the Ravens are going pedal to the metal. It's going to be cold and that home crowd will be amped. Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Bailey Zappe versus Lamar Jackson?

Pick: Ravens 31, Browns 13

Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Saturday, 5 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 11/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

There's something at stake for both teams. The Bengals are fighting to keep their longshot playoff hopes alive. The Steelers are just playing for seeding and they've lost three in a row..

Pick: Bengals 24, Steelers 20

Carolina Panthers (4-12) at Atlanta Falcons (8-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 7 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Until they ran into the Buccaneer buzz saw, the Panthers were playing better. Atlanta is more explosive with Michael Penix at quarterback than Kirk Cousins, and the Falcons have a chance to win the NFC South.

Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 20

New Orleans Saints (5-11) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 13 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Buccaneers need to wrap up the NFC South so they have a fire under them. The Saints tend to give Tampa Bay problems but New Orleans has no offense and this shouldn't be that close.

Pick: Buccaneers 31, Saints 17

Washington Commanders (11-5) at Dallas Cowboys (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 4 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Commanders are in the playoffs, but they have to keep their rookie QB going and get Terry McLaurin involved again. It really hurts Dallas that CeeDee Lamb is done for the season. The visitors have incentive.

Pick: Commanders 30, Cowboys 17

Chicago Bears (4-12) at Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 9 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Chicago tends to dig holes for itself before starting to throw the ball all over the place and at least make it interesting. The Packers are playing for seeding but that doesn't matter as much in the NFC this season.

Pick: Packers 31, Bears 23

Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) at Indianapolis Colts (7-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line:Colts by 5 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

That was a really ugly loss for the Colts in New York, with Giants quarterback Drew Lock picking them apart. Jacksonville is coming off a decent win over the Titans. This one is purely for pride.

Pick: Colts 20, Jaguars 17

Buffalo Bills (13-3) at New England Patriots (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 2 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Buffalo has been a good landing spot for backup QB Mitch Trubisky, and he should do fine against the Patriots. Drake Maye seems to have a bright future in New England, and the coach needs to hang on to his job.

Pick: Patriots 23, Bills 21

New York Giants (3-13) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 38 1/2.

How much do the Eagles play Saquon Barkley? The rushing record isn't as important as keeping him healthy, and he got his 2,000 yards. Eric Dickerson's record survives, and the Eagles keep rolling.

Pick: Eagles 27, Giants 20

Houston Texans (9-7) at Tennessee Titans (3-13)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Titans by 1 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Davis Mills is a pretty good backup quarterback for Houston and he has experience. The Titans have lost five in a row, even though they have been close in several of those. Division game so could be tight.

Pick: Texans 24, Titans 20

Seattle Seahawks (9-7) at Los Angeles Rams (10-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Seahawks by 5 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The Rams have locked up the NFC West, so they'll likely lean on backups. There's still seeding at stake, so that's something. Seattle is going to want to finish strong and that might be enough to tip the scales.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Rams 20

Los Angeles Chargers (10-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (4-12)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 5 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Chargers might know their seeding before kickoff. If so, surely they will rest Justin Herbert. They'll probably rest J.K. Dobbins, too. But considering the shape of the Raiders, the visitors might still win.

Pick: Chargers 20, Raiders 17

San Francisco 49ers (6-10) at Arizona Cardinals (7-9)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 4 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

As the Rams can attest, the Cardinals play hard and they're a physical team. The 49ers made a strong showing in the shootout with Detroit, but we could see a lot of Josh Dobbs at quarterback.

Pick: Cardinals 28, 49ers 20

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) at Denver Broncos (9-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 9 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

In all likelihood, the Broncos are going to be facing Kansas City's JV squad, and Carson Wentz on almost no game reps doesn't inspire much confidence. Denver can secure a spot in the playoffs with a win.

Pick: Broncos 21, Chiefs 17

Miami Dolphins (8-8) at New York Jets (4-12)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

With the Denver game going on at the same time, Miami still will have a chance to make the playoffs at kickoff. The Jets are in disarray, having lost six of seven. Go with the team that has something at stake.

Pick: Dolphins 27, Jets 23

Minnesota Vikings (14-2) at Detroit Lions (14-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Lions by 2 1/2. O/U: 56 1/2.

The Lions have a ton of ways to score, and they're never truly out of a game, but they are so banged up on defense that it could catch up to them. Minnesota is quietly hitting its stride with Sam Darnold.

Pick: Vikings 34, Lions 31

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