Dieter Kurtenbach: Was the 49ers win a one-off or the start of a trend? All signs point one way.

Dieter Kurtenbach, The Mercury News on Dec 9, 2024

Published in Football

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Was the San Francisco 49ers’ win on Sunday a one-off or a trend that can carry the 49ers for the remainder of the season?

It’s a fair question after the 49ers — a team that had lost three straight games, with the last two coming on a 73-20 margin — put together arguably the best half in franchise history against the Bears on Sunday, out-gaining Chicago 319 yards to 4.

The performance was a wonderful reprieve, but is it informative?

Probably not.

The Bears were downright awful on Sunday. They had a rookie quarterback, a terrible offensive line, a head coach on his second promotion in a month, and a defense missing a coordinator.

Chicago made it easy on the Niners. The “real” San Francisco might have arrived, but such success will likely be short-lived.

That said, don’t be surprised if the level of play lasts the rest of the week.

The Niners will play against the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday. Like all the games the Niners have down the stretch of the season, it’s a contest the team must win to keep its flicker of playoff hopes alive.

And a lot of what the Bears do, at least on defense, should be on display with the Rams on a short week.

There are two things you have to know about these 49ers:

First, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense in both personnel and play design was built to beat defensive zone coverage — particularly Cover 3.

The second is that every team with a coach worth their salary has played man-to-man against the 49ers, copying the playbook the Kansas City Chiefs have used against the Niners in the teams’ last three meetings, which included Super Bowl LVIII.

With two top receivers who don’t separate — Jauan Jennings and Deebo Samue l— and a scheme built to attack sitting linebackers over the middle, Niners quarterback Brock Purdy completes 72 percent of his passes against zone coverage, with the highest quarterback rating in the league against it (122.9).

But against man-to-man coverages, where receivers need to win against their defenders? Purdy completes only 46 percent of passes with an abysmal 52.4 passer rating.

This isn’t to say that Purdy is the problem. He’s far from it. His shrewd scrambles are the only reason the Niners have had a functioning offense in several games this season.

It’s only to say that until rookie Ricky Pearsall (a man-to-man beater receiver who, contrary to what the zoomed-in TV view might tell you, is separating) Purdy can get on the same page, teams should press up and play man against the Niners.

According to my charting, the Bears played zone coverage on 22 of Purdy’s 27 drop-backs on Sunday.

Yes, Chicago ran 80 percent zone against a team that carves up zone.

Did the Bears even have a defensive team meeting this week?

Sure enough, Purdy went 2 for 5 against those man-to-man snaps, albeit for a gaudy 71 yards.

So yeah, that seems like a one-off offensive performance. Surely other teams won’t be so poorly coached, right?

The 49ers’ defense sacking the quarterback seven times, sans Nick Bosa, also feels like an unrepeatable scenario.

All that said, the chaos of a Thursday night game works to the Niners’ advantage here. The short week often results in teams — in this case, the Niners and Rams — putting out a game plan rooted in the team’s basics.

The Rams have played even more zone defense than the Bears this season, and while they don’t play as much Cover-3 (the defense the Niners’ offense was built to beat) as Chicago, it’s undoubtedly commensurate (48 percent to 43 percent going into Week 14).

This is what the Niners want to see when they have the ball, and while the Rams did show more man-to-man looks in Week 3, one has to believe the Niners won’t see a fully bespoke defensive game plan on the short week.

(Remember, Seattle — a team that wants to play man-to-man — played an unjustifiable amount of zone against the Niners in that Thursday matchup in October.)

If that happens, the Niners will likely score 30-plus points, and a one-off could become a two-for.

As for a three-peat and a chance at making this season interesting in the final weeks? We’ll have to wait and see.

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