DETROIT — There’s a math to the madness.

But that can be hard to understand, at times, especially when the Lions’ Dan Campbell appears to throw caution to the wind and keeps his offense on the field for another fourth-down try.

Take the one Thursday night, late in the third quarter of Detroit’s exhilarating 34-31 win over Green Bay at Ford Field. Facing fourth-and-1 from his own 31-yard line, Campbell opted against punting the ball away with his team leading by a field goal. Instead, the Lions ran a play and the Packers’ defense blew it up, stuffing running back Jahmyr Gibbs for a 1-yard loss. Green Bay took advantage of the short field and scored a touchdown four plays later to retake the lead, 28-24, while social media melted down over Campbell’s seemingly reckless decision. Never mind that the analytics strongly suggested he’d made the right call in going for it. It bucked conventional wisdom, and it failed.

Fast forward to the end of the game, though. The Amazon Prime broadcast crew sounded aghast that Campbell was choosing not to attempt a go-ahead field goal on fourth-and-1 from the Packers’ 21-yard line with 43 seconds left. But David Montgomery’s 7-yard run on the ensuing play allowed the Lions to burn the remaining clock before Jake Bates booted the game-winner as time expired. On that one, analyst Ben Baldwin’s popular “Fourth Down Bot,” which weighs fourth-down decisions based on “win probability added,” considered it a bit of a toss-up, with a slight recommendation to kick on fourth down.

Right or wrong, Thursday’s emotional roller coaster was just another example of Campbell’s aggressive nature, which stands out even in a league where coaches have increasingly embraced data-driven gameplay over the last decade or so. Not every decision has worked, as Campbell is quick to point out himself. But for every fourth-down decision that has backfired — from a field-goal try that left him in tears after a loss to Minnesota in 2021 to gambles that busted in the NFC championship collapse in San Francisco — there's a consistency in his conviction.

“I think he’s done a really good job of deciding when to go and when not to go,” Lions quarterback Jared Goff said after Thursday’s win clinched a playoff berth and kept Detroit on top in the race for the NFC’s No 1 seed in the postseason.

“Certainly, because it worked, everyone is going to say, ‘Great call.’ And if it didn’t work, you guys would be crushing him. That’s the game he plays and that’s why he’s the guy with the big stones — and we trust him.”

And while Campbell certainly trusts his gut, he also trusts his players as well as his play-caller, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. More often than not, they’ve rewarded him for that.

Here’s a handful of highlights from Campbell’s tenure as the Lions’ head coach:

Dec. 5, 2021: Lions 29, Vikings 27

Looking back, it’s fitting that the Lions’ first win under Campbell came courtesy of a fourth-down call, and three years ago to the day from Thursday night’s drama, no less. At 0-10-1 in early December 2021, Detroit was the only winless team remaining in the NFL. The Lions hadn’t won a game in 364 days, and they weren’t going to beat the Vikings at Ford Field, either, unless they scored a touchdown on fourth-and-2 from Minnesota’s 11-yard line with 4 seconds left.

The Lions were trailing 27-23 largely because Campbell’s fourth-down gamble from his own 28-yard line on Detroit’s previous possession ended with a sack-fumble by Goff that set up the Vikings for the go-ahead score.

But with the game hanging in the balance, Goff found rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown in front of a pair of Vikings defenders in the end zone for the win as time expired. As St. Brown said afterward, “Jared saw it and the rest is history.”

Dec. 18, 2022: Lions 20, Jets 17

The Lions won this one by running back a play they’d used a week earlier in a win over Minnesota. Only this time, instead of Goff throwing a pass to Penei Sewell masquerading as a tight end, the target was tight end Brock Wright, who’d been elevated to a starting role after the T.J. Hockenson trade. And instead of third down, this came on fourth-and-1 from midfield, with the Lions trailing 17-13 at the 2-minute warning of the fourth quarter.

Goff faked a handoff to Justin Jackson, then looked right in St. Brown’s direction — that’s essentially the route Sewell had run against the Vikings — before turning the other way where Wright, who’d dropped a pass to start that drive, was uncovered in the left flat. He hauled in Goff’s pass this time, turned upfield and rumbled 51 yards largely untouched for what proved to be the winning touchdown.

Jan. 8, 2023: Lions 20, Packers 16

The Lions punctuated their statement win at the end of the 2022 season with another fourth-down success.

On a night where the visitors spoiled the Packers’ playoff hopes and ultimately ended Aaron Rodgers’ career in Green Bay, they finished things off by playing keep-away. The Lions ran the final 3:27 off the clock in the fourth quarter, aided by Campbell’s decision to go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Packers’ 15-yard line with 1:15 to play.

A field goal would’ve made it a 23-16 lead, but Campbell kept his offense on the field and Goff took a shotgun snap, rifled a quick pass to DJ Chark between a pair of Green Bay defenders and then the Lions got to celebrate with a final kneel-down snap. St. Brown waved goodbye to the Packers fans as they headed glumly for the exits.

Nov. 12, 2023: Lions 41, Chargers 38

Campbell went for it on fourth down five times in this shootout in Los Angeles. And it was another bold decision in the final two minutes that would ultimately win it for the Lions.

Facing fourth-and-2 from the Chargers’ 26-yard line with 1:47 to play in a tie game, Campbell opted against trying the go-ahead 44-yard field goal. As Goff joked later, “With our guy, I kind of lean toward, ‘We’re going’ until he tells us we’re not.”

In this case, they were, though Goff had to wait and wait some more before finding tight end Sam LaPorta for a 6-yard reception that allowed the Lions to bleed the remaining clock before Riley Patterson kicked the 41-yard field goal to win it. Said Goff of his coach: “Yeah, he’s got big b----, and he showed it there.”

Jan. 15, 2024: Lions 24, Rams 23

LaPorta wasn’t sure he’d even be able to play in the Lions’ first home playoff game 30 years last winter. But after fighting back from a knee injury to get his shot, he made the most of his opportunity in Detroit’s 24-23 win over the Los Angeles Rams.

And he had his lone practice day that week to thank for it, because the Lions’ red-zone work on the Friday before the playoff game included some “what-if” discussions with his coaches about a route concept that paid huge dividends.

In a game that started fast — the Lions and Rams combined to score on their first six possessions — Campbell opted for a fourth-down touchdown try rather than a field goal midway through the second quarter. And Goff hit LaPorta as he ad-libbed his way to the back of the end zone to put the Lions up, 21-10.

Gamblin’ Man

The Lions have been among the NFL leaders in fourth-down conversion attempts since Dan Campbell became head coach in 2021.

— 2021: 21 for 41 (51.2%)

— 2022: 20 for 37 (54.1%)

— 2023: 21 for 40 (52.5%)

— 2024: 15 for 22 (68.7%)

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