Ken Sugiura: After slide, Falcons' standing hardly could be better

ATLANTA — After steering his team out of a four-game plummet, Falcons coach Raheem Morris could not ask for much more than what his team has now.

The Falcons’ win over the New York Giants on Sunday coupled with Tampa Bay’s narrow loss to Dallas has improbably returned control of the NFC South to the Falcons, as both teams lead the division at 8-7 and the Falcons own the tiebreaker. As Morris artfully put it Monday, the results meant that “we had the pen back.”

After the pair of results, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats assessed their probability of making the postseason at 54%, a healthy jump from their 35% probability of making the postseason that they faced before Sunday against the Giants. If they’d lost to New York, their probability would have plummeted to 13%.

It was quite a turn.

With two more wins, starting Sunday at Washington, the Falcons would end their six-year playoff drought, win the NFC South for the first time since 2016 and host their first-ever playoff game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. They no longer need the help of a Buccaneers loss. While the sample size is all of one start, it looks like rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is the real deal.

They occupy this position despite having lost four games in a row and quarterback Kirk Cousins improbably free-falling in a matter of weeks from potential comeback player of the year to candidate for release.

For Falcons fans everywhere, that’s some seriously joyful tidings.

And that isn’t even the totality of the Falcons’ good fortune. You can start with the Falcons being in the only division where an 8-7 record is good for first place.

Given the circumstances, it appears that the transition from Cousins to Penix transpired about as smoothly as you could hope. Morris gave Cousins every chance to keep the job before his dismal play in the win over Las Vegas on Dec. 16 drained any remaining hope for a return to form. It arguably was the respect that he was due for his past performance and the loyalty that he engendered in less than 12 months with the team, not to mention the size of his contract.

Morris could have pulled the rip cord a game or two sooner. But his patience and loyalty to Cousins until his play made it clear that a change was necessary likely made the switch cleaner than it otherwise might have been. Cousins or anyone else in the locker room couldn’t reasonably contend that he hadn’t received a fair shake. Cousins did his part by accepting the demotion with professionalism.

And then Penix made good on the decision with his efficient and winning play against the Giants. Penix’s playmaking and management of the offense hardly were a given. A poor showing would have only added to the turmoil. But, probably benefiting from the extended time behind Cousins, Penix shined against the New York defense.

And then the Buccaneers failed to take care of business against the Cowboys, handing the division lead back to the Falcons.

In a matter of days, the switch to Penix, the (potentially) tide-turning win against the Giants and the return to the top of the NFC South all fell into place. This after falling from 6-3 to 6-7 with ineffective play from Cousins and seeing playoff hopes shrivel. It was like drawing a winning poker hand, card by card.

Of course, things are always subject to change.

There are two more chances for the Falcons to torture their fan base. They could well lose to Washington and give back the division lead to the Buccaneers. (They are four-point underdogs to the Commanders and former Falcons coach Dan Quinn.) Penix could play more like the rookie that he is than the emerging star that he appeared to be against the Giants. A rookie quarterback winning his first three starts, as the Falcons are asking him to do, is a rarity in NFL history for good reason.

You don’t have to have been a Falcons fan for any longer than the past 12 months to know that falling out of the playoffs most definitely is in their repertoire.

Which is why the Falcons really, really have to seize this advantage. They’ve gone six seasons without a playoff appearance. They have a roster built for this purpose. Chances like this don’t alight upon Flowery Branch with frequency.

To lose the advantage that they’ve gained after withstanding the season’s turbulence and not making the playoffs would be a galling conclusion to the season. More broadly, it would resume and augment the questioning and criticism that Morris and general manager Terry Fontenot have faced regarding their management of the franchise.

It all makes the Sunday night game at Washington so critical. A win would ensure that they stay ahead of Tampa and would increase their playoff probability to 85%.

Really, it’s the sort of game that Falcons and their fans have wanted for years — a late December game with a legitimate playoff bid on the line. It’s why longtime left tackle Jake Matthews stayed up late Sunday night to watch the Buccaneers-Cowboys game, hoping Dallas could do the the Falcons a favor. Matthews doesn’t need to be reminded of the last time the Falcons were in the playoffs, a 2017 division-round loss to Philadelphia.

“I think we finished right at the end near the goal line,” Matthews said, his memory accurate. “We would have gone back to the NFC Championship game. I haven’t made it back since. This is a big deal for me and for the organization. This is what you work hard for and play for because you want to play meaningful games and win championships. We’ve got everything in front of us now — and just got to find a way to win.”

This hasn’t been the season that Morris envisioned, but few NFL seasons ever are. Regardless, getting the team into the postseason remains the charge he was given when he took the job last offseason.

You can write it down in pen.

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