Sam Farmer's Week 14 NFL picks

Sam Farmer, Los Angeles Times on Dec 5, 2024

Published in Football

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Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 16-0 (1.000); season 131-64 (.672). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 11-5 (.686); season 106-87-2 (.549). OFF: Broncos, Colts, Commanders, Patriots, Ravens, Texans. Times Pacific.

PACKERS (9-3) AT LIONS (11-1)

Thursday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Great NFC North showdown. Detroit is the better team with more ways to beat you. The Packers will try to establish the run. Both teams are rested, and this will be closer than the first meeting.

Pick: Lions 27, Packers 23

BROWNS (3-9) AT STEELERS (9-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Steelers by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Welcome back, Russell Wilson. He's got command of Arthur Smith's offense and the Steelers are rolling. The Browns just beat the Steelers in a snowstorm. Unlikely to pull off an encore.

Pick: Steelers 27, Browns 23

PANTHERS (3-9) AT EAGLES (10-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 12 1/2. O/U: 45 1/2.

Carolina has shown a little life lately, but Philadelphia is one of the league's top three teams. That Eagles defense is stifling, and Saquon Barkley is an MVP candidate. Long day for Bryce Young.

Pick: Eagles 31, Panthers 20

JETS (3-9) AT DOLPHINS (5-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 6 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Jets are mailing it in and have lost eight of nine, even though they showed some fight last week against Seattle. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 365 in the cold of Green Bay last week.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Jets 21

FALCONS (6-6) AT VIKINGS (10-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 5 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Kirk Cousins revenge game. Vikings blitzes haven't been hitting home as much, but they should against a slower quarterback. Falcons have lost three in a row and Cousins was picked off four times last week.

Pick: Vikings 24, Falcons 21

SAINTS (4-8) AT GIANTS (2-10)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 4 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Alvin Kamara is dangerous, but the Saints are going to miss Taysom Hill. Their defense is still playing fairly well. New Orleans has much more of an ability to make big plays than the Giants.

Pick: Saints 23, Giants 18

RAIDERS (2-10) AT BUCCANEERS (6-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 6 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Tampa Bay has won back-to-back games against bad teams and got a real scare from Carolina. Still, the NFC South title is within reach, and that should be enough incentive against the two-win Raiders.

Pick: Buccaneers 28, Raiders 23

JAGUARS (2-10) AT TITANS (3-9)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Titans by 3 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

The Titans were blown out last Sunday. The previous time that happened, they came back the next week and pulled off a rare win. Look for Tennessee to climb off the mat again in this matchup.

Pick: Titans 23, Jaguars 20

SEAHAWKS (7-5) AT CARDINALS (6-6)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Huge game for NFC West. The Cardinals don't look the same on offense as they did earlier this season. The Seahawks have won three in a row, including a win over Arizona.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 18

BILLS (10-2) AT RAMS (6-6)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bills by 4 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Bills are building momentum. Josh Allen is making plays, and that defense is cranking up the heat on opposing quarterbacks. The Rams have weapons but are still searching for that consistency they need.

Pick: Bills 28, Rams 23

BEARS (4-8) AT 49ERS (5-7)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 3 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Teams often get a bounce in the immediate aftermath of firing their head coach, so the Bears could benefit from that. The veteran 49ers are desperate, and they aren't out of it in the NFC West.

Pick: 49ers 24, Bears 20

CHARGERS (8-4) AT CHIEFS (11-1)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chiefs by 3 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Chiefs haven't looked like the Chiefs lately, and could easily have lost any of the last four games they won. The Chargers have been sharp on defense and tend to play tough at Kansas City.

Pick: Chargers 21, Chiefs 20

BENGALS (4-8) AT COWBOYS (5-7)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Bengals by 5 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Cooper Rush has led the Cowboys to consecutive wins, and Cincinnati's defense has been terrible. Still, the Bengals have the better quarterback and the weapons to get to 30 points.

Pick: Bengals 31, Cowboys 27