Sam Farmer's Week 12 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 9-5 (.643); season 107-59 (.645). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-5-1 (.615); season 90-74-2 (.549). Off: Bills, Bengals, Falcons, Jaguars, Jets, Saints. Times Pacific.

STEELERS (8-2) AT BROWNS (2-8)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Steelers by 3 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

Week by week, the Steelers are getting the job done. They've won five in a row. The Browns are coming off an embarrassing loss at New Orleans and their defense is breaking down.

Pick: Steelers 21, Browns 17

CHIEFS (9-1) AT PANTHERS (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 10 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The narrow loss to Buffalo probably takes some of the pressure off the previously unbeaten Chiefs. Carolina has won two in a row by a combined four points but is outclassed in this matchup.

Pick: Chiefs 38, Panthers 10

COWBOYS (3-7) AT COMMANDERS (7-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 10 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

After back-to-back losses to good teams, the Commanders take out their frustrations on the down-and-out Cowboys. Cooper Rush wasn't horrendous for Dallas but that team has no confidence.

Pick: Commanders 28, Cowboys 16

VIKINGS (8-2) AT BEARS (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 3 1/2. O/U: 39 1/2.

Sam Darnold has been up and down lately, but the Vikings have multiple playmakers. The Bears have played some good teams close, yet they've still lost four in a row. Caleb Williams is going to get blitzed a lot.

Pick: Vikings 27, Bears 17

TITANS (2-8) AT TEXANS (7-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Texans by 8 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Tennessee's defense is solid but it's on the field too much because the Titans offense can't move the ball. Houston is starting to figure it out and broke through with some second-half scoring against Dallas.

Pick: Texans 27, Titans 18

LIONS (9-1) AT COLTS (5-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 7 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Lions have too many ways to beat you, although losing linebacker Alex Anzalone hurts. Anthony Richardson looked better for Indianapolis on Sunday, but he puts himself too much in the line of fire.

Pick: Lions 31, Colts 20

PATRIOTS (3-8) AT DOLPHINS (4-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 7. O/U: 45 1/2.

Drake Maye is giving the Patriots a chance to win, and the team isn't making a ton of mistakes. Miami is starting to wake up a little bit, though, and should be able to take care of business at home.

Pick: Dolphins 28, Patriots 20

BUCCANEERS (4-6) AT GIANTS (2-8)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Buccaneers by 5 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Tampa Bay figures to be as healthy as it has been all season and motivated with Atlanta losing again. The Giants are going with Tommy DeVito at quarterback. Situation is a mess.

Pick: Buccaneers 24, Giants 14

BRONCOS (6-5) AT RAIDERS (2-8)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 5 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Bo Nix is playing out of his mind, and Denver's defense is playing really well. Raiders lost by 16 to the Broncos in Denver, and there's no reason to think this will be much different.

Pick: Broncos 27, Raiders 17

49ERS (5-5) AT PACKERS (7-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Packers by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The 49ers have a lot of talent, but they're seriously lacking when it comes to killer instinct. Difficult to have a lot of faith in that defense in the second half. In this matchup, though, they're the more desperate team.

Pick: 49ers 24, Packers 20

CARDINALS (6-4) AT SEAHAWKS (5-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Seahawks by 1 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

With DK Metcalf back and some effective running by Kenneth Walker III, the Seahawks can do damage. Arizona doesn't have a lot of household names, but the physical Cardinals will knock you around.

Pick: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 23

EAGLES (8-2) AT RAMS (5-5)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 2 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Eagles have a lot of ways to beat you on offense — especially with Saquon Barkley — and their defense is swarming. The Rams are capable of making this very interesting, but Philadelphia gets the edge.

Pick: Eagles 28, Rams 26

RAVENS (7-4) AT CHARGERS (7-3)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 49 1/2.

Harbaugh Bowl. The Chargers are going to try to establish the run, but the Ravens are No. 1 at stopping it. Leaning toward Baltimore in this Jim-John Harbaugh matchup because the Ravens are better in the clutch.

Pick: Ravens 28, Chargers 24