Sam Farmer's Week 11 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 8-6 (.571); season 98-54 (.645). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 6-8 (.429); season 82-69-1 (.543). Off: Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers, Giants. Times Pacific.

COMMANDERS (7-3) AT EAGLES (7-2)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Eagles by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Eagles are on a roll, having won five in a row since their off week. Saquon Barkley was a phenomenal acquisition. After three straight wins over bad teams, the Commanders were edged by Pittsburgh.

Pick: Eagles 30, Commanders 21

RAMS (4-5) AT PATRIOTS (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Rams by 4 1/2. O/U: 43 1.2.

Drake Maye is a guy to watch, and the Patriots have won two of their last three. The Rams were embarrassed against the Dolphins and should be able to bounce back, though they aren't blowing out anybody.

Pick: Rams 24, Patriots 18

RAVENS (7-3) AT STEELERS (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Ravens by 3. O/U: 48 1/2.

The Steelers are making believers of the critics, and Russell Wilson still throws a beautiful deep ball. Baltimore has a ton of weapons, but this isn't one of those classic Ravens defenses.

Pick: Steelers 27, Ravens 24

PACKERS (6-3) AT BEARS (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 5 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

The Packers are fresh after a week off. That gave them some time to self-scout and for Jordan Love to get healthier. After an impressive stretch, Chicago has been a mess three games in a row.

Pick: Packers 24, Bears 13

JAGUARS (2-8) AT LIONS (8-1)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Lions by 13 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Jared Goff gets picked off five times and the Lions still win? This team believes — and for good reason. There's always a chance of a letdown, but that's unlikely at home against a two-win opponent.

Pick: Lions 31, Jaguars 17

RAIDERS (2-7) AT DOLPHINS (3-6)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Dolphins by 7 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

That was an impressive win at the Rams for Miami. The Raiders will have a tough time keeping pace offensively in this matchup. That said, the Raiders are rested and their pass rush isn't bad.

Pick: Dolphins 23, Raiders 16

BROWNS (2-7) AT SAINTS (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Saints by 1 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

Teams that change coaches tend to get a one-week bounce, and the Saints got that last week. Jameis Winston knows this Saints team, which no longer has Marshon Lattimore.

Pick: Browns 20, Saints 17

VIKINGS (7-2) AT TITANS (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 5 1/2. O/U: 40 1/2.

Sam Darnold has had five interceptions in the last two games, even though his Vikings have held on to win. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Titans can't score and their defense is on the field too long.

Pick: Vikings 24, Titans 16

COLTS (4-6) AT JETS (3-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Jets by 3 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

Difficult to have any trust in Jets, who were absolutely manhandled by Arizona, but the Colts don't have much to offer, either — plus, they're on the road. Home team holds on.

Pick: Jets 17, Colts 16

FALCONS (6-4) AT BRONCOS (5-5)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Falcons are looking to bounce back after losing to New Orleans, and Denver's defense is pretty good. Bo Nix is having a solid season and Denver keeps this one close. Atlanta hangs on.

Pick: Falcons 21, Broncos 17

SEAHAWKS (4-5) AT 49ERS (5-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 6 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

This is around the time of year the 49ers really fire their engines and start stacking wins. Christian McCaffrey is poised to truly resurface. Rested Seahawks keep this close.

Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23

CHIEFS (9-0) AT BILLS (8-2)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Bills by 1 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Chiefs narrowly avoided a home loss to Denver and can't be overjoyed about their play. Buffalo's a little more banged up than most. Here's betting the Bills put a first blemish on that gaudy KC record.

Pick: Bills 24, Chiefs 20

BENGALS (4-6) AT CHARGERS (6-3)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 1 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Chargers are stacking wins and gaining confidence, having scored a season-high 27 in consecutive weeks. The Bengals have been a bit more up and down lately, but they're desperate.

Pick: Bengals 27, Chargers 23

TEXANS (6-4) AT COWBOYS (3-6)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Texans by 7 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

The Texans take advantage of their in-state rivals. When else are they going to catch the Cowboys with a bunch of guys hurt and Cooper Rush at quarterback? Dallas will have a tough time scoring.

Pick: Texans 26, Cowboys 13