Greg Cote's Week 11 NFL picks

“Estoy más caliente que un huevo en una plancha de desayuno.” (“I’m hotter than an egg on a breakfast griddle.”) Our heater continued last week with 11-3 overall hoisting us over .650 for the year, and 9-5 against the spread, opening up some breathing room on the right side of .500. We nailed our Upset of the Week with Steelers’ win at Washington, had another outright upset with Arizona beating Jets, and had a big four other dogs-with points on covers by the Bengals, Panthers, Patriots and Bucs. Won’t try to explain the serendipity of our hot streak, but may it roll on! Lets’ bleepin’ go! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was @Eagles (7-2, -3 1/2) over Commanders (7-3), 27-23.]

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Week 10: 11-3, .786 overall; 9-5, .643 vs. spread.

Season: 99-53, .651 overall; 78-71-3, .523 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 11 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (9-0) at BILLS (8-2)

Line: BUF by 2.

Cote’s pick: BUF, 27-23.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

Our Game of the Week picks have rarely been simpler (although Ravens-Steelers had stray support this week). Patrick Mahomes’ two-time champion Chiefs, The Last Unbeaten, trying to be NFL’s first three-in-a-row titleist since since Green Bay in Vince Lombardi’s 1965 to 1967. And Josh Allen’s Bills, on a five-game win streak, 4-0 on the road, and trying to prove their championship window ain’t shut yet. Teams are 2-2 in four most recent meetings, with both of K.C.’s W’s coming in playoffs. Including playoffs Mahomes is 4-3 to Allen’s 3-4 head to head, but Allen has a 16-3 TD/INT ratio to Mahomes’ 15-5. Will the remaining 1972 Dolphins get to finally toast The Last Unbeaten losing? (If so, this one’s for you, Mercury Morris.) Buffs hope to have WR Amari Cooper back but might be sans TE Dalton Kincaid. Chiefs still don’t have RB Isiah Pacheco back. No result would surprise in a matchup that will have a playoff feel, but I lean Bills for the home field and for matters of ball security, with Buffalo tops in NFL with plus-13 turnover differential and Chiefs a subpar minus-four.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

TEXANS (6-4) at COWBOYS (3-6)

Line: HOU by 7 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 23-20.

TV: 8:15 p.m. Monday, ESPN/ABC.

“AAAWWWK!” warbles the Upset Bird. “No I am NOT kidding with this pick. Cowbaaawwwk!” Gamblers and predictors typically base their picks on analytics, research, injuries, trends and so forth. But sometimes you just play a damned hunch, right? And so I am. A big, risky hunch on which odds say I’ll look the fool on Monday night, not the genius. No matter. I clearly get why Houston is a big favorite. Houston could have top WR Nico Collins back. Dallas is 0-4 at home and was bad even before Dak Prescott was lost for the season, and fill-in Cooper Rush was horrid last week in a 34-6 spanking by Philly. So why the big upset? Texans have lost two in a row and three of past four. They are only 2-3 on the road, where C.J. Stroud has been fallible and completed only 58.6% of his passes. Dallas D finally has star Micah Parsons back. Rush can’t possibly be as bad as he was last week. Also: Law of averages! No team is due something good to happen more than the Boys. “Get ready to crack open that bottle of Johnnie Walker Blue, Jerry,” says U-Bird. “Johnnie Walker Blaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 11:

Thursday night pick was @Eagles (7-2, -3 1/2) over Commanders (7-3), 27-23.

Packers (6-3, -5) over @Bears (4-5), 21-17: Green Bay is coming off a bye and has beaten Chicago 10 times in a row and 15 of past 16 including last five trips to The Soldier. Expect big dose of Josh Jacobs vs. Bears’ bad run D to keep that NFC North domination going. Panicky Chitown fired their offensive coordinator after home loss to New England. Caleb Williams has taken 18 sacks in past three games but Gee Bees don’t bring much heat. Bears are 4-1 at home and will keep it close.

@Lions (8-1, -14) over Jaguars (2-8), 42-10: Bump to 14 made this biggest point spread of NFL season so far, with good reason. Might take five more picks by Jared Goff to give Jax any shot, especially with Trevor Lawrence still out (shoulder) and Mac Jones pitching again. J’ville is 0-5 on road and Lions have put up 94 points in past two at home.. Expect Goff in a big rebound effort to bend and break Jags’ soft defense.

Vikings (7-2, -6) over @Titans (2-7), 19-10: Wild guess: Turnovers will shape this outcome. Vikings defense leads NFL in interceptions (15) and total takeaways (20). Titans offense is third-most generous with 17 giveaways. But Minny QB Sam Darnold has thrown five picks in past two games. Fewest turnovers win? Watch Vikes RB Aaron Jones take center stage on a low-scoring afternoon.

At Dolphins (3-6, -7) over Raiders (2-7), 31-16: It was back in September, when Tua Tagovailoa was in the midst of four games out with his latest concussion, when, across the country, Las Vegas Raiders coach Antonio Pierce volunteered he thought Tua should retire because “it’s not worth it,” he said of the risk. That’s almost unheard off — for one NFL head coach to butt into another team’s business in such a matter. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel and Tagovailoa could not have been happy. Sunday comes the payback. I expect to see a big offensive show by Miami against the Raiders’ 30th-ranked scoring defense. If Fins need additional motivation, former Dolphins safety DeShon Elliott, now with the Steelers, said this week on a podcast that Miami as a team last year was “soft as [bleep]” and that “the majority of the [Dolphins] were not mentally tough individuals.” Lame potshot by Elliott, but also the kind of accusation you show a middle finger to with a big win Sunday. A couple of concerns: Tyreek Hill’s wrist still isn’t right, though he will likely play. Right tackle Austin Jackson is out for the season and Fins need all the blocking they can get against Raiders pass-rush maniac Maxx Crosby. And Miami is coming off a short week after playing Monday, while Vegas is in off a bye week. Still like the Dolphins fueled by a big game from the quarterback the Raiders coach said should retire.

Rams (4-5, -5) over @Patriots (3-7), 23-20: L.A.’s offense was a no-show at home vs. Dolphins last Monday but expect better from Matthew Stafford’s gang against a Patriots team it doesn’t take a ton of points to beat. But New England earned some confidence with a nice road win at Chicago and looks like a nice enough home ‘dog to stay close and cover.

Browns (2-7, +1) over @Saints (3-7), 24-17: Upset! Well, a tiny one. Cleveland is coming off a bye, and Jameis Winston, a 2021-23 Saint whom New Orleans gave up on, will be amped to face and beat his ex’s. The Browns’ Myles Garrett is coming off a three-sack performance, and RB Nick Chubb is due a breakout game vs a N’Awlins run-D that struggles.

@Jets (3-7, -4) over Colts (4-6), 31-18: Firing coach Robert Saleh hasn’t proved a quick fix as Planes have taxied at 1-4 since, but like NYJ for a liftoff here. (I’ve just been flagged for excessive use of aeronautical metaphors.) Embattled Aaron Rodgers has been better at home going 2-2 with a 100.9 passer rating, and I see a big day for Davante Adams vs. subpar Nags pass D. Indy has lost three straight with eight turnovers and is 1-4 away. Waffle House Colts ended the Joe Flacco experiment and are going back to Anthony Richardson, but the upgrade is debatable.

Ravens (7-3, -3) over @Steelers (7-2), 24-23: Our Game of the Week runner-up would be the juego más grande most any other week. It’s a battle for AFC North lead in what could be NFL’s best rivalry. Pittsburgh has won thee straight and seven of past eight over Baltimore, but each has been close and low-scoring. The surprising series lopsidedness means the Ravens and Lamar Jackson are due against their nemesis, and they come in with added rest/prep edge after playing last Thursday. Steelers win with running and defense, but no team scores more or stops the run better this year than the Crows.

@Broncos (5-5, -2 1/2) over Falcons (6-4), 23-20: Sean Payton goes for a season sweep of the NFC South, but this was our toughest call of the week. Atlanta is 3-1 on the road, and Kirk Cousins passer-rates 108.2 away from home. But Denver has the defense to make it tough on Cousins and Bijan Robinson. Weather also adds to the lean to Denver, with the dome-home Falcons unused to playing in temps in the 40s.

@49ers (5-4, -6 1/2) over Seahawks (4-5), 30-20: Detroit might be the new NFC “it” team, but slow-starting San Fran quietly has started to make don’t-forget-about-us noise. No coincidence the season debut of Christian McCaffrey last week also saw Brock Purdy’s second-best passer rating of the year. Seattle tempts with the points, coming off a bye and getting DK Metcalf back. But Niners have beaten ‘Hawks six straight times including 36-24 last month, and should roll again.

Bengals (4-6, +1 1/2) over @Chargers (6-3), 27-23: Upset! Sunday night stage finds Bolts coach Jim Harbaugh winning with low-risk offense and big defense, but they are 6-3 vs. a rather soft schedule. Example: Current three-game win streak is over teams that are a combined 7-21. Cincy’s offense (Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase) will be the best L.A. has yet faced (and I include Kansas City’s). Cincy also brings edge of having played last Thursday, and could get WR Tee Higgins back after three games out. Bengals are still trying to climb out of an 0-3 hole and desperate to get back in playoff chase, and will play like t.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— Buccaneers (4-6, next @Giants): Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay were an “it” team for a minute before four straight losses with last week’s close one to San Fran. But Bucs’ schedule is mostly Charmin-soft from here.

— Cardinals (6-4, next @Seahawks): If you had Arizona leading the NFC West after 10 games and surfing a four-game win streak into the bye, congrats. You are first in a line with nobody behind you.

— Giants (2-8, next vs. Buccaneers): Tied for worst record in league, 0-6 at home and on a five-game skid including a home loss to lowly Carolina — ouch. Coaches have been fired for less, Brian Daboll.

— Panthers (3-7, next @Chiefs): Carolina has won two in a row to quietly elevate from dreadful to merely bad. Trip to K.C. on deck suggests the streak won’t reach three.