Sam Farmer's Week 10 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 12-3 (.800); season 90-48 (.652). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-6 (.600); season 76-61-1 (.555). Off: Browns, Packers, Raiders, Seahawks. Times Pacific.

BENGALS (4-5) AT RAVENS (6-3)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Ravens by 6 1/2. O/U: 52 1/2.

The Ravens almost never lose prime-time games at home, although this matchup won't be easy. Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson is banged up, and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is on a roll.

Pick: Ravens 28, Bengals 24

GIANTS (2-7) VS. PANTHERS (2-7)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Giants by 5 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Panthers are a mess, so it's hard to rely on them at all. Giants are more talented, but that's not saying much. Malik Nabers figures to reel in a lot of catches, and New York should take care of business in Munich.

Pick: Giants 24, Panthers 18

BRONCOS (5-4) AT CHIEFS (8-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Chiefs by 8 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Denver should bounce back after a humiliating thrashing by Baltimore, but will it be enough? The Broncos are solid on defense, but they might not have the offense to break their streak of eight straight losses at KC.

Pick: Chiefs 27, Broncos 13

PATRIOTS (2-7) AT BEARS (4-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bears by 6 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

Chicago might be struggling on offense, but New England's soft defense could be the ideal cure. The sharpest focus will be on two athletic rookie quarterbacks. There are some real positives to the Patriots' Drake Maye.

Pick: Bears 21, Patriots 14

BILLS (7-2) AT COLTS (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 4 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The Bills are hurting at receiver, but they're running the ball well, and that's a vulnerability for the Indianapolis defense. This could be a trap game for Buffalo if the Bills are looking ahead to Kansas City.

Pick: Bills 28, Colts 21

VIKINGS (6-2) AT JAGUARS (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 4 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

Too many weapons for the Vikings, especially with them getting T.J. Hockenson back. Minnesota's run game hasn't been as strong lately. A factor to watch: Minnesota's kicker and long snapper were injured last week.

Pick: Vikings 23, Jaguars 17

FALCONS (6-3) AT SAINTS (2-7)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 3 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

If you're ever going to bet a team, bet it the week after it fires its head coach. So that's a reason to take the Saints ... but you can run it on the Saints. That's going to help Kirk Cousins & Co. tighten their NFC South grip.

Pick: Falcons 28, Saints 17

49ERS (4-4) AT BUCCANEERS (4-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: 49ers by 5 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

Week off has given San Francisco a chance to heal and self-scout, and likely the return of Christian McCaffrey. The Buccaneers are playing hard but missing two of the best receivers in club history.

Pick: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 23

STEELERS (6-2) AT COMMANDERS (7-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Commanders by 3. O/U: 45 1/2.

The Commanders are rising and a real test for Pittsburgh. Jayden Daniels has been terrific, and Terry McLaurin is rolling. The Steelers defense is good, and Russell Wilson keeps Pittsburgh in it.

Pick: Commanders 24, Steelers 20

TITANS (2-6) AT CHARGERS (5-3)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 7 1/2. O/U: 37 1/2.

Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has a formula that works. He's leaning on Justin Herbert a bit more instead of run, run, run. The defense is playing tougher. Tennessee has a good defensive line but no offense.

Pick: Chargers 27, Titans 17

EAGLES (6-2) AT COWBOYS (3-5)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Eagles by 7. O/U: 41 1/2.

The New York Giants must feel gnawing regret about letting the spectacular Saquon Barkley go, and the Eagles don't mind at all. The Cowboys are hobbled and humbled, having lost three in a row.

Pick: Eagles 31, Cowboys 16

JETS (3-6) AT CARDINALS (5-4)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: Cardinals by 1 1/2. O/U: 46 1/2.

The no-name Cardinals play hard for Jonathan Gannon and are building a hit-you-in-the-mouth identity on offense. The Jets have more talent, and they're going to get a confidence boost from beating Houston.

Pick: Jets 23, Cardinals 20

LIONS (7-1) AT TEXANS (6-3)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Lions by 3 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

Detroit can win so many ways, and with so many weapons. They can run it, they've got speed and now Za'Darius Smith. Houston's missing a lot of players and its offensive line has been bad..

Pick: Lions 30, Texans 20

DOLPHINS (2-6) AT RAMS (4-4)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Rams by 2 1/2. O/U: 50 1/2.

The Rams have three electrifying receivers, and Matthew Stafford looks like his best self. The young defense is coming along too. Miami is a different team with Tua Tagovailoa, but home team gets the edge.

Pick: Rams 28, Dolphins 23