Greg Cote's Week 10 NFL picks

Continued our hot streak straight-up last week by conjuring a 12-3 mark, but dropping another game to .500 vs. the spread soured the overall vibe. Had Patriots with the points at Tennessee and missed an Exacto score on that one by one point: Titans won 20-17; I had it 19-17. Also rightly had Bucs with the points to cover Monday night at K.C. Missed a couple of other ATS picks by one point, but no excuses. None earned after misfiring badly on our Upset of the Week with Dallas over Atlanta. Ouch. Time to keep the overall run going and get back on a role vs. the Evil Betting Line. Let’s saddle up! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Ravens (6-3, -6) over Bengals (4-5), 38-34.]

———

Week 9: 12-3, .800 overall; 7-8, .467 vs. spread.

Season: 88-50, .638 overall; 69-66-3, .511 vs. spread.

———

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 10 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

LIONS (7-1) at TEXANS (6-3)

Line: DET by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DET, 30-23.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

The Game of The Week committee meets regularly at the Quill ‘n Swill Pub, and most weeks it’s a cordial affair. This time it had the rancor of — totally random reference — a U.S. presidential vote as a loud minority lobbied for Steelers-Commanders. (The crowd shouted down one would-be voter bleating for Dallas-Philly, but the codger turned out be an interloping Jerry Jones in a Dolly Parton wig.) What a matchup for the Sunday night stage! Houston 4-0 at home, Detroit 4-0 away. Lions an understandable fave, but Texans with the prep/rest edge after playing last Thursday. Motown’s Jared Goff is crazy-accurate, Motown has only two turnovers in its six-game win streak, its ground game is solid and now the Lions get big-time pass rusher Za’Darius Smith by trade. Lions Super Bowl vibes are legit. Houston’s best hope beyond the home field? C.J. Stroud has zero turnovers, Joe Mixon rolls a fifth straight 100-yard game and Goff’s potent offense isn’t on the field enough. Could happen. Wouldn’t bet on it.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

STEELERS (6-2) at COMMANDERS (7-2)

Line: WAS by 2 1/2.

Cote’s pick: PIT, 23-20.

TV: 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS.

“AAAWWWK!” bellows the Upset Bird. “Pittsbaaawwwk!” Quality interconference matchup is our Game of the Week first alternate as both teams come in riding three-game win streaks. Steelers have cashed on the switch to Russell Wilson at QB, and he’s helped big-time by RB Najee Harris having a strong year, including three 100s in a row. Washington is 4-0 at home but Pitt counters at 3-1 away. I love a great coach coming off a bye, and Mike Tomlin is both here. And his Steelers defense will be the biggest test yet (by a lot) for Commanders rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Comms bolstered their own D by trading for CB Marshon Lattimore, but he’s iffy for his D.C. debut with a hamstring injury. “Defense and Mike Tomlin off a bye, yes,” nods U-Bird. “Tomlin off a baawwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 10:

Thursday night pick was Ravens (6-3, -6) over Bengals (4-5), 38-34.

Giants (2-7, -6 1/2) over Panthers (2-7), 23-18, in Munich: The latest victims of Roger Goodell’s World Domination Tour, Panthers fans, will travel 4,500 miles on a nine-hour Charlotte-to-Munich flight for this “home” game. As Germans wonder, “Warum schicken uns die Amerikaner so schlechte team?” (Why do the Americans send us such bad teams?) It’s a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff, so heat up some butterbrot, weisswurst and bircher muesli and enjoy! Carolina won last week, but NYG should ride an improving ground game to the foreign-soil win — though lean Cats getting 6 1/2.

@Bears (4-4, -6 1/2) over Patriots (2-7), 20-17: Chicago is 4-0 at The Solider and should saddle the home field to end a two-game skid owing to bad run defense. Caleb Williams vs. Drake Maye in a battle of baby arms spices the matchup. Bears risk lookahead-mode with rival Green Bay on deck in Week 11, so bet Pats stay inside the number in a points-shy affair.

Bills (7-2, -4) @Colts (4-5), 27-16: Buffs sail in on a four-game win streak as Josh Allen foments MVP chatter with 17 TDs and only two picks. But it could be RB James Cook leading the way here against a bottom-rung Indy run defense. Colts sticking with Joe Flacco for now and are 3-1 at home. Bills have unbeaten Chiefs next but should marshal enough attention to handle this and cover a small number.

@Chiefs (8-0, -8) over Broncos (5-4), 24-13: K.C. had won 16 in a row in series before Denver finally prevailed last October. And Broncos, better now, could fashion a big upset here if the Chiefs are too full of themselves and sneaking a peek at next week’s trip to Buffalo. K.C. also off a short week and playing at 1 p.m. for first time all season. Two stout defenses in play. One of them will be trouble for Bo Nix. The other is facing trouble in Patrick Mahones.

Falcons (6-3, -4) over @Saints (2-7), 28-17: N’Awlins began this season 2-0 by combined 91-29 score. That was about 600 years ago. Seven losses in a row have seen Saints wave white flag by firing coach Dennis Allen and trading top CB Marshon Lattimore. (Interim coach Darren Rizzo was Dolphins special-teams guy in 2010-18.) Might Cajuns enjoy a bump from the coach-change? An upset would not shock, but ATL is 3-0 on road and Kirk Cousins has been too hot to ignore.

49ers (4-4, -6 1/2) over @Buccaneers (4-5), 31-27: RB Christian McCaffrey seemed likely on Thursday to reward his fantasy owners’ patience and finally make his season debut for San Fran Sunday in Tampa. But can he lift Niners enough to vie for NFC title? I rather think they will ease him back from his Achilles tendon injury with a light workload initially. Still, 49ers run great even without him, have won three straight over Bucs and should win again coming off a bye. But! Brock Purdy has struggled on road (three TDs, six picks), and Baker Mayfield at home-plus six is too tempting.

Vikings (6-2, -7) over @Jaguars (2-7), 27-16: It says here turnovers will shape this result. Talking to you, Trevor Lawrence and Sam Darnold! Minnesota’s defense has 17 takeaways — second in the NFL — while Jax’s offense has a dozen giveaways, which is bottom 10. A clean sheet by T-Law would give Jags a medium-large upset shot, but that’s a tall ask against Vikes’ big-play defense under the aegis of coordinator Brian Flores, the former Dolphins head coach who is enjoying a career comeback with said D in Minnesota.

@Chargers (5-3, -7 1/2) over Titans (2-6), 30-13: L.A. is winning old-school, with great defense and major-plus turnover ratio. Time for Jim Harbaugh to enter coach of the year talk? Both of these teams defend the run stoutly, so both passers could be on the spot, in which the disparity is stark. Super-efficient Justin Herbert has one INT in 223 passes. Will Levis, expected back from a shoulder injury, will melt under Bolts’ pass rush.

Eagles (6-2, -7) over @Cowboys (3-5), 24-20: NFC East rivals have split games the past two seasons, but this first meeting of ‘24 finds Dallas reeling — and that was even before QB Dak Prescott was lost for several weeks to a hamstring injury. Cowboys have lost three straight and are 0-3 at home. The good news? Top defender Micah Parsons could finally return from injury on Sunday, a peg on which to hang the upset hat if you’re feeling saucy. But Eagles have won four straight and looking like a team that thinks it can win the NFC. Jalen Hurts is hot, Boys lousy run D hints at a huge day for Saquon Barkley, and Philly’s top-notch secondary threatens a rough day for Dak sub Cooper Rush. Even with all that, mark it down: A Dallas outright upset shot breathes on desperation and wounded pride.

@Cardinals (5-4, +1 1/2) over Jets (3-6), 23-21: Once again the wrong team may be favored here because so many wish-bets always flood in from New York fans pretending Aaron Rodgers isn’t about to turn 41. Arizona has won three in a row during which the defense has stood up, and Kyler Murray is a dual threat in a way Rodgers isn’t. Bonus sideshow: Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Garrett Wilson in a clash of ex-Ohio State WRs. No result would surprise, so I’ll lean hot Cardbirds at home.

Dolphins (2-6, +1) over @Rams (4-4), 27-24: Upset! Sort of. Monday nighter features a near-pick 'em bet line shading to Rams at home by narrowest margin. L.A. has won three in a row, sparked by return of WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Miami agonizingly has lost two straight on last-second field goals despite its own lift from return of QB Tua Tagovailoa. He has put up 54 points in those two games, and more of that here wins. Fins own Rams all time, 12-2 in series with five straight W's, though last meeting was 2020, with this Miami’s first trip to face LAR since 2016. Concerning here: Miami is 1-3 away, and on an ugly 1-7 skid in prime-time games. Reason for hope: Dolphins hope to be healthier on defense Monday with return of DT Zach Seiler and S Jevon Holland, with Bradley Chubb’s comeback finally getting close, too. Fins have sorely lacked a pass rush (one of many reasons for 2-6) and could dearly use one here against Matthew Stafford. Key to victory for Miami: Clean game; no turnovers — because Rams D has forced at least three in each of three games in their win streak. Why the (mini) upset pick? The two defenses are about even but give a slight edge to Dolphins with the ball since Tua’s return. Playing a bit of plain hunch here, too. The past two losses have been really rough, and the Fins are due a break instead of a heartbreak.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— Browns (2-7, next @Saints): All four bye teams are licking wounds off losses — Cleveland’s to the Chargers in a spectacular failure to follow up on that stunning upset of Baltimore.

— Packers (6-3, next @Bears): Big NFC North loss to Detroit ended a four-game Green Bay win streak, with another large division test on deck.

— Raiders (2-7, next @Dolphins): Loss to Cincy made it five straight L’s for Vegas. Wait. Trip to Miami next? You mean Dolphins might actually win one?

— Seahawks (4-5, next @49ers): After loss to Rams, slumping Seattle’s 3-0 start to season seems ages ago, and there’s another tough division test around the bend.