Tom Krasovic: With Justin Herbert healthy and productive, Chargering may become a thing of the past

Tom Krasovic, The San Diego Union-Tribune on Nov 4, 2024

Published in Football

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SAN DIEGO — A lot has changed with the Los Angeles Chargers since they hired Jim Harbaugh.

But what hasn’t changed is the stunning good fortune the franchise has enjoyed at the NFL’s most important field position.

For the past two-plus decades, the Chargers have gone into most games with a better quarterback than their opponent.

It’s not a trend that gets much attention from the NFL’s media partners, but oddsmakers know better. This explains how the QB-gifted Chargers, over their 331 regular-season games dating to the 2004 opener, have been an aggregate favorite on betting lines by an average of 2.1 points. Only six of the other 31 teams rank above them during that span.

In most years, the standard media narrative is that injuries sabotage the Chargers. Injuries outside of the QB position, however, seldom move betting lines, and almost any big change in the point spread involves a franchise quarterback’s availability.

It just so happens that at QB dating to at least 2004, the Chargers have enjoyed a twin bonanza.

One, they employed good-to-very-good QBs in Drew Brees, Philip Rivers and Justin Herbert. Their top QB was available to start every one of those games until last December, when a fractured finger ended Herbert’s season with four games left.

That’s why they’re the Shamrock Chargers.

Favorites, not dogs

In each of the Chargers’ six seasons leading up to Harbaugh’s hire, oddsmakers favored them in more than half of their contests.

Under Harbaugh, it’s been more of the same.

In six of the eight games, his team entered as the favorite. The exceptions were the third and fourth contests, when the Chargers came in as one-point road underdogs against the Steelers and seven-point home underdogs against the Chiefs. Influencing those lines, Herbert was coming off a high ankle sprain sustained in the Week 2 win at Carolina.

This week, the Chargers are 7 1/2-point home favorites against the Titans. The main reason requires no research. Herbert stands as a much better QB than Mason Rudolph, a veteran backup who last month replaced Will Levis, an erratic second-year player. Adding to Rudolph’s challenges, center Lloyd Cushenberry III sustained a season-ending injury Sunday.

Though the Chargers’ following four opponents have above-average QBs in Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins and Mahomes, Harbaugh’s team projects as the favorite in five of their nine remaining games.

Another QB windfall that’s become standard operating procedure in Chargers Land has played out as well this season, serving up opposing offenses challenged by a QB’s subpar ability, lack of NFL experience, inexperience with his current team or some combination of the above.

Already this year, L.A. has gone against three starting QBs who subsequently were benched – Gardner Minshew, Bryce Young and Justin Fields.

The fifth and seventh games served up rookie QBs in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler, the latter an injury replacement. Sunday in Cleveland, the Chargers’ defense faced another injury replacement in Jameis Winston.

For all their good fortune since 2004 at the NFL’s most important spot, the Chargers didn’t reach a Super Bowl and appeared in only one AFC title game (one in which Rivers played despite a torn ACL).

What could Harbaugh do with Herbert, 26, holding up as he has since entering the NFL?

Chargering would be put to its toughest test yet.

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