NFL DFS Week 8 Optimal Lineup

The Milly Maker is a large-field GPP (guaranteed prize pool), and it usually takes a highly correlated lineup to win those types of tournaments.

Week 7 was no different with theHman utilizing three game stacks to secure first place and the grand prize of a million dollars. His primary stack featured players from the Lions-Vikings matchup — Sam Darnold (17.26 DraftKings points), Justin Jefferson (21.4), Jahmyr Gibbs (35) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (28.2) — one of three games on the main slate with an over/under above 50.

Both Gibbs and St. Brown had their best fantasy performances of the season.

Pairing the Chiefs’ Kareem Hunt (22.3) with Mecole Hardman (12.5) provided some leverage since Hardman was only used in 0.9% of the tourney lineups.

The stroke of genius was pairing two Browns pass catchers with the defense they were facing, a truly outside-the-box choice. There was a target vacuum in Cleveland after Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo, so tight end David Njoku (23.6) and Elijah Moore (10.1) helped fill the void, largely thanks to PPR volume. Njoku and Moore had 16 receptions combined.

The Bengals finished with four sacks, two interceptions and scored a defensive touchdown. Pairing them with reception-dependent opponents who might have a hard time hitting paydirt made for a unique build.

Last week, The Lineup was also very highly correlated, but I focused primarily on those three potentially high-scoring affairs.

I included both Jefferson and Gibbs, but also went with a Geno Smith (17.78)-DK Metcalf (19.9)-Drake London (18.3) double-stack from the Seahawks-Falcons matchup.

Anticipating the Commanders-Panthers being a blowout (it was), I stacked Brian Robinson Jr. (13.1) with Jalen Coker, a punt option who only got me two points.

I was more conventional than theHman, stacking the Giants defense (4) with Eagles tight end Grant Calcaterra (1.5), and both disappointed.

I clearly had the right idea, and still cashed ($20 on a $10 entry) on a low-scoring week, but could have been a little more imaginative in retrospect.

Correlation gives you a better chance of hitting a really big score.

For fantasy purposes, it’s important to remember the two most prevalent types of correlation: positive and negative.

Positive correlation is when two variables move in tandem, like a wide receiver and his quarterback.

Negative correlation is when one variable increases as the other variable decreases, or vice versa, like how my wife’s mood is negatively correlated with me spending an hour trying to convince her “The Empire Strikes Back” is the greatest movie of all-time after she asks me where we should go for dinner.

The Preamble

Devising the perfect Daily Fantasy Sports strategy for the NFL can be a challenge, which is why I’m here weekly to assist.

On DraftKings, it’s important to remember you’re playing full-point PPR with bonuses if a player surpasses 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards or 100 receiving yards.

Here is my optimal lineup for Sunday’s NFL $2.75 million Fantasy Football Millionaire contest, but it can be utilized as a foundation in other games and platforms.

All prices listed are courtesy of DraftKings with a $50,000 budget.

The Optimal Lineup has netted $137.86 this season, so I’m in the black $22.86 with an average score of 131.79 points through seven weeks.

Year-To-Date Results

— Week 1: 90.16

— Week 2: 144.38

— Week 3: 100.38

— Week 4: 180.78

— Week 5: 147.14

— Week 6: 126.72

— Week 7: 132.98

Week 8 Lineup

— QB: Jordan Love, Packers ($7,100)

Only the Lions (28.5) have a higher projected score than Green Bay (27) on the main slate. Love has accounted for 41 total TDs (39 passing, two rushing) in his last 17 games, including 13 TD passes in four games since returning from injury. The Jaguars have allowed the most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, and can do enough offensively to keep the Packers aggressive.

— RB: De’Von Achane, Dolphins ($6,200)

While I’m not using Tua Tagovailoa in this lineup, I am taking advantage of his return to a once dynamic offense with the two players who should benefit the most. Achane had seven receptions for 76 yards in Week 1, Tua’s only full game this season, and he’s coming off his most efficient game on the ground this year, running for 77 yards on 5.1 yards per carry against the Colts last week. According to Fantasy Pros, the Cardinals have allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per game, the fifth-highest rushing success rate, and the 13th-highest yards before contact per attempt.

— RB: Javonte Williams, Broncos ($6,000)

Williams is averaging 15.5 touches in Denver’s four victories this season, and the Broncos are favored by 11 points over the Panthers. He’s also third in overall targets (29) for running backs, trailing only Breece Hall and Alvin Kamara (both have 43). Carolina is allowing the most fantasy points to running backs through seven weeks, so this is a smash opportunity for Williams.

— WR: Tyreek Hill, Dolphins ($7,000)

The second part of my “Welcome back, Tua!” stack, Hill is about $1,500 cheaper than he should be with his franchise QB back under center. The “Cheetah” had 29 DraftKings points in his only full game with Tagovailoa this season and topped 25 points in nine of 16 games last season. Hill showed up on the injury report Thursday with a foot injury (usually not a good thing), so monitor his situation. Pivot to Davante Adams ($7,100) if Hill is a late scratch, or Jaylen Waddle ($5,400) and boost another position with the savings.

— WR: Jayden Reed, Packers ($6,700)

Green Bay head coach Matt LaFleur uses Reed similarly to how Kyle Shanahan uses Deebo Samuel, to create space in the offense, which means Reed will occasionally act as a decoy, but not against a defense like the Jaguars, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

— WR: Cedric Tillman, Browns ($3,300)

I mentioned last week how Tillman could end up being Week 7’s Sean Tucker with everybody expecting Njoku and Jerry Jeudy to soak up Cooper’s targets after the trade. He finished with eight receptions for 81 yards on 12 targets and a two-point conversion against the Bengals. I imagine Tillman will remain busy with Jameis Winston taking over the offense against the Ravens, who are allowing the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

— TE: Brock Bowers, Raiders ($6,100)

Happy National Tight End Day to those who celebrate. Bowers is running away with the target lead at the position (60). The Cardinals’ Trey McBride is second with 45. The 13th overall pick is also second in the NFL with 47 receptions, trailing only Chris Godwin (50), who will miss the rest of this season with an ankle injury. Bowers only has one TD, but he faces a Chiefs defense allowing the most fantasy points to tight ends.

— FLEX: Sterling Shepard, Buccaneers ($3,800)

After Mike Evans aggravated his hamstring injury, Trey Palmer ($3,500) took over as an every-down outside receiver. Jalen McMillan ($3,700) has been the No. 3 WR for Tampa Bay this season when healthy, so the third-rounder in this year’s draft likely sees a big bump in value and opportunity, but it’s the veteran Shepard — Baker Mayfield’s former college teammate — likely seeing a lot of run in the slot, getting first crack at Godwin’s vacated targets.

— DST: Denver Broncos ($3,700)

The Broncos have scored double-digit fantasy points in five of seven games, and rank second in the NFL in sacks (28). Harder to envision a better situation than facing the Panthers and Bryce Young at Mile High without their two top receivers.

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