Sam Farmer's Week 7 NFL picks

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 11-3 (.786); season 56-36 (.609). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 9-5 (.643); season 49-42-1 (.538). Times Pacific. Off: Bears, Cowboys.

BRONCOS (3-3) AT SAINTS (2-4)

Thursday, 5:15.

Line: Broncos by 2 1/2. O/U: 36 1/2.

The Saints have lost four in a row and gave up 51 to Tampa Bay, so they're nothing special. Still, with Sean Payton's return, the dome is going to be rocking for a Broncos team that's really struggling offensively.

Pick: Saints 17, Broncos 13

PATRIOTS (1-5) VS. JAGUARS (1-5)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m.

Line: Jaguars by 5 1/2. O/U: 42 1/2.

If the Jaguars turn in another embarrassing performance, London might lose all interest in eventually getting an NFL team. New England is similarly inept, so this one across the pond stays close.

Pick: Patriots 21, Jaguars 18

LIONS (4-1) AT VIKINGS (5-0)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Vikings by 2 1/2. O/U: 49 1/2.

The Vikings are undefeated and rested after their off week. The Lions absorbed a big blow in losing Aidan Hutchinson, but Jared Goff has that offense rolling. Lions swept this series last season.

Pick: Lions 30, Vikings 27

SEAHAWKS (3-3) AT FALCONS (4-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Falcons by 3. O/U: 51 1/2.

These teams are heading in opposite directions. The Seahawks have lost three in a row; the Falcons have won three in a row. Atlanta is home and its offense is putting up points at an impressive clip.

Pick: Falcons 30, Seahawks 24

TITANS (1-4) AT BILLS (4-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bills by 8 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

The Titans have kept it close in a lot of games but just aren't getting it done with Will Levis at quarterback. After three straight road games, the Bills come home and take care of business.

Pick: Bills 30, Titans 20

BENGALS (2-4) AT BROWNS (1-5)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Bengals by 6 1/2. O/U: 41 1/2.

Browns should get a boost if, as expected, Nick Chubb makes his season debut. But will that make enough of a difference against Joe Burrow and a Bengals team that's slowly getting on track? Probably not.

Pick: Bengals 27, Browns 20

TEXANS (5-1) AT PACKERS (4-2)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Packers by 2 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

The Texans are getting Denico Autry back from suspension and he'll bolster a pass rush that's already relentless. That could set the stage for a road win against a Packers team coming off back-to-back victories.

Pick: Texans 28, Packers 24

DOLPHINS (2-3) AT COLTS (3-3)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Colts by 3. O/U: 44 1/2.

The Colts have defensive issues but they've won three of four, and backup QB Joe Flacco can get the job done, if necessary. The banged-up Dolphins have had a week off so should be healthier.

Pick: Colts 24, Dolphins 20

EAGLES (3-2) AT GIANTS (2-4)

Sunday, 10 a.m.

Line: Eagles by 3. O/U: 43 1/2.

The stage is set for Saquon Barkley to have a big game against his old team, even though the Eagles couldn't get that ground game going in their win over Cleveland. Giants have yet to win at home.

Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 24

RAIDERS (2-4) AT RAMS (1-4)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Rams by 7. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Rams are rested and starting to get a little healthier. Big bonus if they get Cooper Kupp back. The Raiders are cracking, having lost three of four. At least they'll have lots of fans in silver and black at SoFi.

Pick: Rams 26, Raiders 20

PANTHERS (1-5) AT COMMANDERS (4-2)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m.

Line: Commanders by 7 1/2. O/U: 51 1/2.

Washington is fun to watch, especially with Jayden Daniels getting increasingly comfortable with Terry McLaurin. Carolina showed some signs of a pulse against Atlanta before a late interception ended that.

Pick: Commanders 28, Panthers 21

CHIEFS (5-0) AT 49ERS (3-3)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m.

Line: 49ers by 1 1/2. O/U: 47 1/2.

Super Bowl rematch. Both teams are rested. Andy Reid is 4-0 against Kyle Shanahan. Although the 49ers are slightly favored, it's hard to pick against Patrick Mahomes and the defending champs in this matchup.

Pick: Chiefs 27, 49ers 24

JETS (2-4) AT STEELERS (4-2)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m.

Line: Jets by 1 1/2. O/U: 38 1/2.

The big mystery is whether Justin Fields or Russell Wilson will start for the Steelers. Jets keep coming close but they have lost three in a row. They're still figuring how to best use Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson.

Pick: Steelers 20, Jets 17

RAVENS (4-2) AT BUCCANEERS (4-2)

Monday, 5:15 p.m.

Line: Ravens by 3 1/2. O/U: 48 1/2.

Difficult to draw a bead on the Buccaneers. It's safe to say Baker Mayfield doesn't have the luxury of another three-pick game this week. Everything points to this being high-scoring, which probably means it won't be.

Pick: Ravens 27, Buccaneers 21

CHARGERS (3-2) AT CARDINALS (2-4)

Monday, 6 p.m.

Line: Chargers by 2 1/2. O/U: 43 1/2.

The Chargers put together three great quarters on defense before a fourth-quarter letdown last weekend. Cardinals have been great within their division but nowhere else. This figures to be a close one.

Pick: Chargers 24, Cardinals 20