Greg Cote's Week 7 NFL picks

Never going to turn down a week like our 12-2 straight-up, but the glimmer ‘n shine of that makes the 7-7 against the spread all the more disappointing. On the wrong side of too many tight lines. Example: Missed two games ATS by a half-point each and that’s how close 7-7 was from 9-5. But nobody knows close-don’t-count more than a gambler. Still, our past three weeks overall have helped begin the turnaround from a really rough start, and so we’re upbeat at the season’s one-third mark. Now let’s keep up the giddyup! [Note: Our Thursday night pick was Broncos (3-3, -2 1/2) over @Saints (2-4), 20-17.]

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Week 6: 12-2, .857 overall; 7-7, .500 vs. spread.

Season: 53-39, .576 overall; 45-44-3, .506 vs. spread.

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GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 7 PICKS

GAME OF THE WEEK

CHIEFS (5-0) at 49ERS (3-3)

Line: SF by 1 1/2.

Cote’s pick: SF, 27-23.

TV: 4:25 p.m. Sunday, Fox.

There are four other GOTW-quality games in this loaded Week 7, but how can you bypass the one that was in the preseason — and still is — the betting favorite to be the Super Bowl matchup? And it would be the third in the past six years, after K.C. beat San Fran in both the 2019 and ‘23 SBs. Downside: Taylor Swift won’t be there cheering for her tight end-boyfriend, as she is playing the last of three sold-out shows Sunday night at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium. (I had planned to attend, but the bank loan didn’t go through in time.) Chiefs have bested Niners in four straight games and six of past seven meetings, including those two championships. K.C. is coming off a bye — and Andy Reid is 21-4 with that advantage. But 49ers having played last Thursday negates some of that edge, as does Kyle Shanahan being near Reid’s coaching equal and owning the motivation of those two SB losses. The Niners are home and due against their nemesis. San Fran is better on offense (sorry, Mahomes), and I see a rise-up performance by the Niners defense.

UPSET OF THE WEEK

JETS (2-4) at STEELERS (4-2)

Line: NYJ by 2.

Cote’s pick: PIT, 19-17.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Sunday, NBC/Peacock.

“AAAWWWK!” warbles the Upset Bird. “Pittsbaaawwwk!” Sunday prime-time stage finds NYJ favored largely because heavy-wagering New Yorkers are dream-betting that newly acquired WR Davante Adams will instantly make QB Aaron Rodgers not almost 41 years old. Rodgers won his only Super Bowl with Green Bay against the Steelers, but that was 14 seasons ago. Reality check: Mr. Rodgers is palpably past his prime now and Adams, 32, also is not what he once was. Adams also is questionable to play, although I would bet the trade from Vegas will be a miracle cure for that alleged hamstring injury. Pitt has its own drama as QB Russell Wilson is healthy and appears poised to supplant Justin Fields for the start — although Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has been coy on his choice. That’s a push of a factor anyway. The Steelers win with defense, and shall again Sunday night. “Steel Curtain will force two or three Jets turnovers,” presages U-Bird. “Two or three turnovaaawwwk!”

THE REST OF WEEK 7:

Thursday night pick was Broncos (3-3, -2 1/2) over @Saints (2-4), 20-17.

Jaguars (1-5, -5 1/2) over Patriots (1-5), 24-20, in London: Second straight weekend in the U.K. for Jaguars but this time it’s a “home” game. (Wonder if it feels like one to Jacksonville fans making the 4,300-mile trip?) New England leads all-time series 12-2 including a 50-10 rout in last meeting in ‘22, but these Pats are in full rebuild mode and now with a rookie QB in Drake Maye. Jax packs enough offensive pop to win, but lean Pats to cover after not doing so in first five losses.

@Falcons (4-2, -3) over Seahawks (3-3), 30-23: Is Atlanta the good team three straight wins suggests? Is turnover-prone Seattle unmasked as a fraud by three straight losses? This game will tell. Seahawks are rested after playing last Thursday, and I don’t discount an outright upset. But Kirk Cousins has ATL cooking on offense, and Falcons RB tandem Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier should bounce for miles on Seattle’s bottom-tier run-D.

@Bills (4-2, -9) over Titans (1-4), 28-13: Josh Allen could find instant chemistry tough with newly acquired WR Amari Cooper vs. a Titans pass defense allowing an NFL-low 137 yards per game. But Will Levis fronts a pass offense as bad as its defense is good. Buffalo is a strong home team (2-0, 81 points), hopes to have RB James Cook back and should roll sufficient to cover the big-for-a-reason betting line.

Bengals (2-4, -5 1/2) over @Browns (1-5), 23-18: One team is among NFL’s biggest disappointments thus far. The other team has Deshaun Watson stinking like Limburger cheese. Ohio must be so proud! Upside: Look for Browns RB Nick Chubb to play for first time in 13 months, although he won’t quick-fix what ails this offense. Joe Burrow is 1-5 straight-up vs. his nemesis Browns. He has too much firepower for Cleveland to continue that trend, although lean Earthtones to cover.

@Packers (4-2, -2 1/2) over Texans (5-1), 23-21: C.J. Stroud vs. Jordan Love at Lambeau gives this matchup Game of the Week-quality heft. Stroud has been great on road but really misses injured WR Nico Collins. Love hopes to have WR Jayden Reed (ankle), but he’s iffy. Give Pack slight edge on both sides of ball. Houston win would not surprise, though, so we’ll hedge bet with Texans plus the points.

@Vikings (5-0, -1 1/2) over Lions (4-1), 27-24: With San Fran wobbly, winner here can think itself best in NFC in another Week 7 duel of GOTW quality. This almost feels like an upset pick but (barely) is not. Will Motown travel with overconfidence after embarrassing Dallas? Minnesota is coming off a bye and has the defense — especially vs. the run — to limit the powerful Lions. And Detroit losing sack man Aidan Hutchinson for the season is a huge blow that will show here with a quieter pocket for Sam Darnold.

Eagles (3-2, -3) over @Giants (2-4), 24-16: Storyline: Eagles RB Saquon Barkley vs. his longtime former team. It’s legit motivation; the Giants marriage ended badly. NYG’s defense has been better than expected, and Philly’s D has disappointed, giving home-dog Biggies an upset shot. But Big Blue has scored only 30 points total in an 0-3 home skid, and could again be missing excellent rookie WR Malik Nabers to a concussion. Saddling up Saquon for the pick.

@Colts (3-3, -3) over Dolphins (2-3), 24-20: Miami fans have never been more excited! About this game? No, don’t be silly. I meant about Taylor Swift’s three straight sold-out shows Friday through Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Local excitement for the Dolphins at Indy I would call moderate to tepid, considering QB Tua Tagovailoa remains out with a concussion and Miami has scored all of 30 points (total) in the three games without him. Fortunately, the Fins’ oft-solid(ish) defense and the Colts’ mediocrity combine to put a road-dog upset squarely in play. Miami had a bye week to make QB Tyler Huntley a bit more comfy, but Fins will need to rediscover a ground game for a real chance. And with De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Wright all healthy and Colts with a 31st-ranked run-D, there is that chance. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) trends unlikely again to play, but Indy gets back starting QB Anthony Richardson, who isn’t the passer Joe Flacco is but poses a bigger challenge with his run threat added. Dolphins have won two of past three trips to Indy and a road win here would not surprise, but Fins’ no-Tua offense has not proven trustworthy enough to bet on.

@Rams (1-4, -6 1/2) over Raiders (2-4), 24-20: L.A. has won three straight and five of past six in this series and, coming off a bye, should extend that run — especially if WR Cooper Kupp is back as hoped for the first time since Week 2. Vegas rid itself of the toxic Davante Adams drama but has remaining issues such as an awful run game and self-inflicted turnover wounds. Like Rams outright but Vegas to sneak inside a plump bet-line.

@Commanders (4-2, -8) over Panthers (1-5), 38-13: Washington coming off a 30-23 loss at Baltimore in a circled-on-the-calendar game could face a letdown vs. woeful Carolina. But do the Panthers have enough to take advantage? Rhetorical question. Answer: Um, no. Jayden Daniels, by air and ground, will grind up a league-worst Carolina defense in points allowed. Five of past six Washington games have gone high on the over/under and this one has a shot even at 51 1/2.

Ravens (4-2, -3 1/2) over @Buccaneers (4-2), 30-24: Monday night’s early game is yet another GOTW-quality matchup, and it finds Baltimore riding a four-game win streak and a run of five straight vs. Bucs. All see Ravens as an AFC power, with Tampa still striving to earn that cred in NFC. Subplot: Lamar Jackson (2016) vs. Baker Mayfield (‘17) in duel of Heisman winners. Both might shine vs. two bad pass defenses. But only one team here has RB Derrick Henry, who has averaged 6.5 yards per carry in past four games.

Chargers (3-2, -2 1/2) over @Cardinals (2-4), 21-16: Chargers bring a 5-1 series run including two straight wins into Monday night’s late game. Coach Jim Harbaugh has rejiggered LAC into a defense-first team that leads NFL in fewest points allowed, and a run-first offense at the expense of Justin Herbert’s fantasy value. And it’s working. Zona might again be missing WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to a concussion, and Bolts RB J.K. Dobbins will feast on Cardbirds’ subpar run-D.

[Note: Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Thursday mid-afternoon.]

OFF THIS WEEK

— Bears (4-2, next @Commanders): Chicago is 4-0 at home and off a big win over Jacksonville in London but fighting just to keep up in an NFC North whose teams are combined 17-5. On deck: Caleb Williams vs. Jayden Daniels in biggie at Washington.

— Cowboys (3-3, next @49ers): Dallas reeling into the bye off a humiliating 47-9 home loss to Detroit that has Jerry Jones trying to convince doubters (and maybe himself) that Mike McCarthy isn’t on the firing line. Cowboys need a big win in the worst way but head next to the worst place to get that: San Francisco.