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Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Yankees in the World Series

Jack Harris, Los Angeles Times on

Published in Baseball

LOS ANGELES — Television executives rejoice.

Major League Baseball is getting a World Series between its two biggest brands.

As was widely predicted when these teams met in June in what was billed as a World Series preview, the Dodgers and New York Yankees will meet in the Fall Classic.

The Dodgers got there by holding off the New York Mets in the National League Championship Series, following their NL Division Series comeback against the San Diego Padres. The Yankees have won seven of nine games in a dramatic October run, dispatching the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Guardians.

This series will draw global eyeballs, with Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Aaron Judge and Mookie Betts starring. And it will represent one of the most high-profile title matchups in recent memories, pitting not only the winningest clubs in each league, but the two MLB franchises with the most previous World Series appearances of all time.

With Game 1 scheduled for Friday at Dodger Stadium, here are nine concerns the Dodgers should have about the Yankees.

1. The other historic MVP

Ohtani is almost certain to win his third career MVP award this season. If he still played in the American League, however, he'd likely finish second.

That's because Judge, the Yankees' hulking 6-foot-7, $360 million center fielder, had one of the most productive offensive seasons in Major League Baseball history.

It's not just that the veteran slugger led MLB with 58 home runs, 144 RBIs, a 1.159 on-base-plus-slugging percentage and 133 walks. But he did it in a season when hitting numbers were down across the board.

Because of that, Judge's OPS+ (an all-encompassing metric that normalizes overall production relative to the rest of the league) was a whopping 223.

For reference, only three NL or AL players in MLB's modern era have had a higher OPS+ in a season — and their names were Barry Bonds, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

Despite all that, Judge's postseason has been a grind. In the division series against Kansas City, he was just 2 for 13 with zero RBIs, albeit while walking five times. And while he had some big moments in the ALCS, including late home runs in Games 2 and 3, he still batted just .167 (3 for 18) in the series.

If there's one hole in Judge's game, it is his penchant to swing and miss. Although he led the majors in walks, he also struck out 177 times, fanning on more than 40% of non-fastballs he swung at.

2. The one who got away

Two years ago, the Dodgers showed serious interest in Soto at the trade deadline. This winter, when Soto will be a free agent in line for a potential record-breaking contract, it's possible they consider him as a target again.

But first, they'll have to limit the 25-year-old superstar in the World Series, where he will be trying to cap one of his best career seasons with a second championship ring.

After being traded by the San Diego Padres (the team that did acquire Soto at the 2022 trade deadline) to New York this offseason, Soto batted .288 (his best mark since 2021) with a .989 OPS (third best in MLB, behind Judge and Ohtani).

He also had 41 home runs, a career high, and 109 RBIs, the third time he had reached that total in his seven MLB seasons.

In the playoffs, he has taken that play to a different level, batting .333 with three home runs — including the ALCS-sealing three-run blast in extra innings of Game 5.

There is no easy way to attack Soto, a left-handed slugger with premier plate discipline (he was one of three MLB hitters with more walks than strikeouts this year), prodigious power (his 179 home runs since 2019 are sixth-most in the majors), and World Series experience (he was the best hitter in the Washington Nationals' 2019 Fall Classic defeat of the Houston Astros).

But some Dodgers pitchers have managed to do it in the past. Most notably, starters Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler have held him to a combined 3-for-18 mark in their careers.

3. The one who got away, Part II

Like Soto, there was once a time Gerrit Cole was a top acquisition target for the Dodgers. In the 2019 offseason, the team offered the Orange County native a $300 million contract as a free agent. Cole, however, accepted a record-breaking $324 million offer from the New York Yankees instead.

The 34-year-old right-hander has made it look like a good investment, ranking second in the majors in wins and fourth in strikeouts since the start of the 2020 season.

Cole made only 17 starts this regular season, after missing the first three months with an elbow injury. But he has been his typical, productive self ever since, posting an 8-5 record and 3.41 ERA that has been followed by a 3.31 ERA in three postseason outings.

Cole doesn't strike out as many batters as he once did (his 9.4 strikeouts-per-nine-inning this year was his lowest mark since 2017). His 7.4% walk rate was also the highest of his career.

Yet, he can still dominate with a fastball that, even after dropping a few ticks to a 95.9 mph average this season, was hit for just a .189 batting average by opponents.

4. The other big bat

 

Like the top-heavy Mets offense, the Yankees lineup drops off substantially after Soto and Judge.

The one exception: Veteran slugger Giancarlo Stanton, who was the ALCS most valuable player.

Though he struggles to get on base, doing so at a woeful .298 clip this year, the 34-year-old Stanton still possesses plenty of pop, hitting 27 home runs and 20 doubles in 114 games this year with 72 RBIs.

A product of Notre Dame High School in Sherman Oaks, Stanton has been spectacular in the playoffs, batting .294 with five home runs, two doubles and 11 RBIs. In October, he has a 1.179 OPS, second-best among batters who played in five playoff games behind only Fernando Tatis Jr.

5. The other power arm

Plagued by injuries for long stretches of his career, including a disastrous debut season with the Yankees in 2023, veteran left-hander Carlos Rodón helped anchor the New York rotation this summer.

He posted team highs with 32 starts and 175 innings. He went 16-9 with a 3.96 ERA. And at age 31, he continued to flash premium stuff, ranking well above league-average with a 95.4 mph average fastball velocity and 30% whiff rate.

The No. 2 starter in the Yankees postseason rotation, much of Rodón's swing-and-miss came from his slider and change-up. His slider alone accounted for 102 of his 195 strikeouts. Only four pitchers in the majors this year recorded more Ks with a single pitch.

Rodón struggled in his first postseason start, giving up four runs in less than four innings to the Kansas City Royals. But in the ALCS, he got back on track, holding the Guardians to three total runs over 10 2/3 innings in two starts in the series.

6. The rest of the rotation

Unlike the Dodgers, the Yankees have some rotation depth to call upon in a longer series.

Clarke Schmidt has given up only four runs in 9 1/3 innings over two playoff starts, building upon his rotation-best 2.85 ERA in the regular-season. Rookie right-hander Luis Gil gave them four innings of two-run ball in the ALCS, and was a 15-game winner in the regular season.

The Yankees might get a boost for their Fall Classic pitching staff, as well, with veteran Nestor Cortes emerging as a "realistic option," in the words of manager Aaron Boone, to return from a September flexor strain injury for the World Series.

7. A patient, productive lineup

As a group, the Yankees had two key strengths at the plate this year.

They were extremely selective in their approach at the plate, posting the lowest swing and chase rates in the majors. They were particularly dangerous against fastballs, ranking fifth in MLB in batting average against the pitch, and second in slugging percentage.

And while Judge, Soto and Stanton provided most of that production, they weren't alone, either.

Trade deadline acquisition Jazz Chisholm Jr. blossomed with the Yankees, batting .273 in New York even while moving from center field to third base. In the postseason, veteran second baseman Gleyber Torres and rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe have reinforced the lineup as well, batting a combined .303 with .800-plus marks in OPS.

8. The bullpen quartet

The Yankees bullpen underwent a late-season makeover in early September. Struggling closer Clay Holmes was demoted from the role after 13 blown saves. Journeyman starting pitcher Luke Weaver ascended into it.

The move brought order to the Yankees relief corps, with Weaver finishing September on a tear as a group of other high-leverage arms cemented themselves around him.

Weaver finished the regular season without giving up an earned run in his last 11 innings, then converted four postseason saves before stumbling in Game 3 of the ALCS. Holmes stabilized down the stretch and has given up just three runs in 7 2/3 postseason innings. Tim Hill has provided a veteran option from the left side, posting a 1.59 ERA in October. Former Dodgers reliever Tommy Kahnle has been scoreless in the playoffs, giving up just three hits (but six walks) in seven innings.

9. A one-sided rivalry

It's been a while, but a Dodgers-Yankees World Series is nothing new.

This year marks the 12th time the two franchises will meet in the Fall Classic, the most common postseason matchup (World Series or otherwise) in MLB history.

Much of that history has been dominated by the Yankees. In the Dodgers' Brooklyn days, they lost each of their first five World Series against the Yankees until finally breaking through in 1955 — the franchise's iconic first championship that was clinched in Game 7.

Since the Dodgers moved to Los Angeles, they've battled the Yankees for a ring four times. In 1963, they claimed their second L.A.-era title. In 1977 and 1978, Reggie Jackson led the Yankees past the Dodgers for back-to-back championships, including the legendary three-homer game in 1977 that spawned his "Mr. October" nickname.

The most recent meeting, though, was won by the Dodgers, who were led by rookie pitcher Fernando Valenzuela and co-World Series MVPs Ron Cey, Pedro Guerrera and Steve Yeager to a split-season title.


©2024 Los Angeles Times. Visit latimes.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

 

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