David Murphy: What will it take to get Ranger Suárez to sign a contract extension?

PHILADELPHIA — There are two big philosophical questions that will shape much of the roster maneuvering that awaits the Phillies over the next year and a half. They do not need to be answered immediately, but they do need to be considered, particularly in between now and the MLB trade deadline on July 30, as Dave Dombrowski and his front office contemplate ways to bolster their first-place roster.

In the interest of topicality, we’re focusing this column on the Suárez Question, which now ranks as the chief source of future uncertainty for a Phillies pitching staff that is operating with a remarkable degree of long-term stability. The four-year contract extension that Cristopher Sánchez signed over the weekend leaves Suarez as the only member of the Phillies rotation who is not under club control beyond next season. Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Taijuan Walker are all signed through at least 2026, with Walker becoming a free agent pre-2027, Wheeler pre-2028, and Nola pre-2031, when he will be 38 years old. That leaves Suárez, a free agent after 2025, as the next big decision for Dombrowski & Co.

First, though, let’s say a few words about Marsh, whose future could easily factor into the Suárez financial calculus. While the 26-year-old outfielder is under club control through at least 2027, the Phillies could soon need to make some crucial decisions regarding his long-term role.

My thinking goes something like this: the Phillies have a clear need in the outfield that Dombrowski will look to address between now and the trade deadline. What’s unclear is where, in the outfield, the need exists most acutely. Is Marsh a long-term option in center field? Do they view him as a viable fallback option if Johan Rojas never develops the plate skills that would allow his elite defense to play an everyday role in a championship-caliber lineup? Or are they sold on the idea of having an everyday center fielder with elite range, at which point the question would become whether Marsh can hit well enough to project as a long-term answer at one of the corner outfield spots.

The answer to all of these questions will factor heavily into Dombrowski’s optimal course of action at the trade deadline. If the Phillies are comfortable with Marsh in center field and view him as a viable consideration in that equation over the next several seasons, then it probably makes more sense to focus on improving a corner outfield spot at this year’s trade deadline, given the greater abundance of short-term options. If the Phillies think they have a long-term need in center, then maybe it does make sense to make an offer for Luis Robert Jr. that the White Sox cannot refuse. Lots of ifs, and lots of time to dive into them over the next month or so.

Back to Suárez.

If the Phillies do announce a contract extension with him at some point, I think people are going to be surprised by the numbers. I’m talking an order of magnitude greater than one might assume to be reasonable.

If Suárez were a free agent after this season, I think you could project his absolute floor to be the four-year, $80 million contract that Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Diamondbacks this offseason, with the more likely outcome being the five-year, $115 million contract that Kevin Gausman signed with the Blue Jays a couple of years ago after his breakout season with the Giants. Those are the two most relevant comps I can come up with in terms of both performance and career trajectory.

But the question isn’t what Suárez would command as a free agent right now. It’s what will he command in 2026, after another year-and-a-half of performance on his track record. More accurately, what will that year-and-a-half look like? What are the possible outcomes? What are the probabilities of each potential outcome? That’s where the real negotiation lies.

One potential outcome is that Suárez has a second half of 2024 that mirrors the first half, and then a 2025 season that mirrors 2024. That’s an extremely lucrative scenario, one that would put Suárez on the market at 30-and-a-half years old coming off back-to-back seasons of 200 innings.

As I wrote during spring training, Suárez has long been on the verge of a season such as this. Since moving into the starting rotation full-time in 2022, his ERA+ ranks among a group of players filled exclusively by Cy Young candidates. The performance has always been there. Since moving into the rotation full-time, he ranks among the top 25 in the majors in innings, ERA, ground-ball percentage, FIP and average exit velocity against. The only thing he has been missing is the season where he makes all of his starts.

For both the Phillies and Suárez, the most reasonable course of action heading into the season was to wait and see. That remains the case. Either he will continue pitching every fifth day and enter the offseason having established himself as a legitimate upper-middle-of-the-rotation workhorse, or he won’t.

Whichever one happens, the conversations will be fascinating.