Romania's establishment holds off far-right win, exit polls show

Romania’s ruling Social Democrats were on course to win a parliamentary election, with exit polls showing the party ahead of a nationalist group that had threatened to drive home a blow to the Black Sea nation’s political establishment.

The Social Democrats secured 26% of the vote on Sunday, with the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians behind at 19%, according to exit polls published by Digi 24 and Antena 3 TV stations. The numbers could change as results are registered overnight; early polls on Nov. 24 underestimated the strength of the nationalists.

The NATO member state was on edge a week after a fringe independent candidate, Calin Georgescu, secured a shock victory in the first round of the nation’s presidential ballot. With a surge for the far-right, the back-to-back elections have signaled a dramatic shift for a once-reliable transatlantic ally out of the European mainstream and toward Moscow.

But a parliamentary victory for the Social Democrats, who have dominated Romania’s politics since the collapse of communism 35 years ago, would complicate an insurgency — and imply a desire among voters to hedge against a pro-Russian candidate taking the presidency.

The Liberal party, which has governed with the Social Democrats for the past three years, and the opposition Save Romania Union, were behind with about 15% apiece, exit polls showed. That would give establishment parties a majority in the Romanian parliament. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, a Social Democrat, resigned as party leader last week after he was eliminated from the presidential contest.

“We have understood the responsibility we have toward Romania,” Ciolacu told voters after the exit polls were released, warning party members to treat the initial numbers with care.

Compounding the chaos of Romania’s election season is a court order for a recount of the Nov. 24 first round in the presidential election, with accusations from top security officials that the contest was tipped by Russian meddling.

The decision by Romania’s Constitutional Court raises the possibility that it may order a repeat of the first-round vote, a decision that could inflame voter anger over inflation, poverty and corruption. The judicial system is viewed by many as beholden to Romania’s power brokers.

TikTok campaign

Georgescu, an agricultural engineer who languished in the single digits in polls just weeks before the presidential vote, defied polls showing that Ciolacu would win the contest. If the second round of the vote is held on Dec. 8 as planned, Georgescu will face the pro-European opposition leader Elena Lasconi, who leads Save Romania Union.

A one-time AUR ally who fell out with the party after he praised Romania’s Nazi-allied World War II leaders, Georgescu has also called for a halt to Ukrainian aid and cast doubt on the benefits of the country’s NATO membership. In 2020, Georgescu praised Russian President Vladimir Putin as one of the world’s few true leaders.

Georgescu’s victory is credited with a nimble social-media presence. TikTok posts featured esoteric chats from the candidate’s living room and high-resolution videos with sweeping landscape shots featuring Georgescu on horseback, performing judo moves or dipping into a mountain lake. The candidate drew scrutiny when he said he took no campaign funding.

Romania’s Supreme Defense Council, which includes top government and intelligence officials, assessed that one candidate — it didn’t name Georgescu — benefited from “massive exposure and preferential treatment.” The panel cited Russian influence operations that aimed to shift public opinion in Romania — and accused TikTok of failing to label the candidate’s videos as election material as required by Romanian law.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, who has frequently misled the media over previous disinformation campaigns, said last week that allegations of Russian interference in Romanian elections are unfounded and unsupported, according to the Interfax news agency.

TikTok said it was “categorically false” to claim that it treated Georgescu’s account differently from other candidates.

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