Romania’s ruling Social Democrats were on course to win a parliamentary election, with exit polls showing the party ahead of a nationalist group that had threatened to drive home a blow to the Black Sea nation’s political establishment.

The Social Democrats secured 26% of the vote on Sunday, with the far-right Alliance for the Unity of Romanians behind with 19%, according to exit polls published by Digi 24 and Antena 3 TV stations. The numbers could change as results are registered overnight; early polls last week underestimated the strength of the nationalists.

The NATO member state was on edge a week after a fringe independent candidate, Calin Georgescu, secured a shock victory in the first round of the nation’s presidential ballot. The back-to-back elections have signaled a dramatic shift for a once-reliable transatlantic ally out of the European mainstream and a lurch toward Moscow.

But a parliamentary victory for the Social Democrats, who have dominated Romania’s politics since the collapse of communism 35 years ago, would complicate a far-right insurgency. Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, a Social Democrat, resigned as party leader last week after he was eliminated from the presidential contest.

Compounding the chaos of Romania’s election season is a court order for a recount of the Nov. 24 first round in the presidential election, with accusations from top security officials that the contest was tipped by Russian meddling.

The decision by Romania’s Constitutional Court raises the possibility that it may order a repeat of the first-round vote, a decision that could inflame voter anger over inflation, poverty and corruption. The judicial system is viewed by many as beholden to Romania’s power brokers.

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