Presidential race in Pennsylvania going down to the wire, according to latest poll
Published in Political News
WASHINGTON — Less than two weeks before Election Day, the races for president and U.S. Senate in Pennsylvania remain too close to call, according to a poll released Thursday.
In the Franklin & Marshall poll, less than one percentage separated former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with the Republican leading, 49.6% to 49.3%. And only one point separated U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa. and his GOP opponent, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, 49% to 48%, in a race that could determine which party controls the Senate in January.
The differences between the candidates are well within the survey's margin of error of 5 percentage points, meaning both races essentially are dead heats. And the Cook Political Report said Casey no longer had any advantage over McCormick.
Among registered voters, Casey held a 49% to 42% advantage over McCormick, close to the poll's margin of error of 4.5 percentage points. (Harris had a four point lead among registered voters, well within the margin of error so either candidate could be ahead.)
But Casey's lead dissipated among those most likely to go to the polls. That's because younger voters and self-described moderates didn't meet the criteria used to determine who is going to cast ballots, according to Berwood Yost, director of the F&M poll.
Yost said he was surprised at how the Democrats' advantage went away when only likely voters were surveyed.
"Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to get those voters to the polls," Yost said.
But Republicans also are trying to woo people who don't regularly cast ballots.
"There are people called low-propensity voters," former U.S. Rep. Lee Zeldin, R-N.Y., said Monday at a rally with Trump supporters in Bethlehem, Northampton County. "Pennsylvania has many of them. We need everyone to rise up. No one can sit this one out."
Registered voters named the economy as their top issue, but the gap between who they thought best could handle it disappeared. Trump's six-point advantage, 48% to 42%, was within the margin of error.
But honesty/integrity/good character was second and women's rights were third, and Harris' margins on those issues were well outside the margin of error.
She was preferred by 11 points over Trump, 51% to 40%, on abortion and other social issues; 10 points, 49% to 39% on character; and 47% to 36% on trustworthiness — all outside the margin of error.
The poll of 794 registered voters, including 583 likely voters, was conducted Oct. 9-20.
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