Pennsylvania is emerging as the top battleground in the White House race with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump increasingly focusing their attention and resources on the Keystone state.

The most populous of the swing states, Pennsylvania — with its 19 Electoral College votes — has drawn repeated visits from the candidates in recent weeks. And voters face a media torrent with campaigns and party committees booking $153 million in ad time for the post-Labor Day sprint, according to tracker AdImpact.

The candidates’ treatment of Pennsylvania as more important than other battlegrounds underscores the significance of a state that saw close contests in 2016, when Trump carried it by less than three-quarters of a percentage point, and 2020, when President Joe Biden narrowly flipped it.

The race there is a microcosm of the presidential contest at large. Trump and Harris have been barnstorming the state, seeking to address economic anxiety driven by high prices and worries about jobs and wages — particularly among blue-collar workers in western Pennsylvania — and to court suburban and independent voters in vote-rich suburbs around Philadelphia.

The state’s importance will be further highlighted Tuesday when Philadelphia hosts what could be the only debate between Harris and Trump.

“Pennsylvania is the biggest electoral prize,” said Aubrey Montgomery of Democratic consulting firm Rittenhouse Political Partners, explaining the frenzied focus and full-state blitz. “Not only are they turning up their communities but they’re also providing resources to turning out the rest of the state.”

Lisa Camooso Miller, a Republican strategist, called Pennsylvania “incredibly interesting right now,” adding that “we just don’t know how it’s going to go.”

An August Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll shows a tight race, with Harris leading Trump in Pennsylvania by four percentage points.

The Democratic nominee decamped to Pittsburgh on Thursday in what the campaign said was her 10th visit to the state this year. She’s expected to remain there this weekend preparing for the debate.

Western Pennsylvania has been a focus for her campaign with Harris and running mate Tim Walz taking a bus tour through the region ahead of last month’s Democratic convention and with the vice president returning to Pittsburgh on Labor Day with Biden. Walz undertook his own swing this week, visiting Lancaster and Erie.

Winning over organized labor and rural communities in western counties will be critical to both campaigns. While Harris boasts the support of union leaders, Trump has made deep inroads with rank-and-file workers once solidly in the Democratic column but drawn to his populist agenda.

“It’s important to go everywhere and make sure that you’re not just deciding where you go based on what’s the biggest media market,” said Brendan McPhillips, senior adviser for the Harris campaign in Pennsylvania.

Trump has held at least eight events in the state this year, including the rally in Butler where he survived an assassination attempt. He held a rally last week in Johnstown and a town hall Wednesday in Harrisburg.

Fracking, steel

Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro, who was on Harris’ running mate shortlist, has said economic issues will be paramount in the state.

Two topics are flash points in western Pennsylvania: fracking and steel.

Biden is poised to kill a $14.1 billion deal for Nippon Steel Corp. to purchase Pittsburgh-based United States Steel Corp., a transaction opposed by the United Steelworkers union. Trump has vowed to block the deal if elected.

The Republican nominee is also hammering Harris over her past opposition to fracking, the technique used to produce most U.S. oil and gas today. Fracking has boosted the economy of Pennsylvania, the second-largest U.S. producer of natural gas, with Pittsburgh sitting in the Marcellus shale formation.

“If she won you won’t have any fracking in Pennsylvania,” Trump said at Wednesday’s town hall.

Harris during her presidential campaign in the 2020 cycle said she was in favor of banning fracking. In an interview with CNN last month, Harris said she had reversed her opposition, saying she would not ban it if elected.

Campaign resources

The candidates are also pouring money into the state. Pennsylvania is shaping up to be the state with the most political ad spending according to AdImpact, with Democrats accounting for $80 million of the $153 million booked post-Labor Day.

The biggest spenders are Make America Great Again Inc., Trump’s allied super political action committee; and pro-Harris Future Forward PAC, followed by the candidates’ campaigns. Eight other groups have reserved at least $1 million, though those numbers can change as resources shift during the race.

Roughly a dozen ads have run on broadcast, cable and connected television since Labor Day in Pennsylvania markets, including a pro-Harris spot vowing to lower costs for middle-class families and a Trump campaign ad targeting her over immigration and Social Security.

Harris has set up 50 coordinated offices and has more than 350 staff on the ground in cities as well as rural counties, according to her campaign. Democrats are eager to turn out voters in heavily blue cities.

Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chair Sharif Street said outreach would intensify ahead of Election Day “to more focused engagement where we’re more focused on encouraging people to return mail-in ballots.”

Trump’s campaign has over two dozen offices across the state, according to an official familiar with their organizing who spoke on condition of anonymity. The campaign also staffed an Hispanic-outreach office in Reading and an office for Black outreach in Philadelphia — part of a broader bid to peel away support from key Democratic blocs.

Acknowledging the tight race, Republican National Committee co-chair Lara Trump has said the party would consider putting more resources in, calling Pennsylvania a “must-win.”

“Every election cycle we have seen consistently how important that state has become,” she said in a Bloomberg Television interview last month.

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(With assistance from Bill Allison, Gregory Korte and Stephanie Lai.)

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