Presidential race is a toss-up in Michigan with 2 months to go, poll finds

The presidential race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is a jump ball in Michigan with 63 days remaining until the Nov. 5 election, according to a new statewide poll commissioned The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.

The Aug. 26-29 survey of 600 likely Michigan voters found 44.7% of participants supported Trump, the former president, 43.5% backed Harris, the current vice president, and 7% selected a third-party candidate.

However, Trump's narrow lead of 1.2 percentage points fell within the poll's margin of error, which was plus or minus 4 points. Likewise, the Republican's advantage was less than the percentage of Michigan voters who said they were still undecided: 4.8%.

"Any way you look at this race, it's a toss-up," said pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group, which conducted the poll.

The numbers indicated Trump got a slight bump in Michigan from former independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspending his campaign on Aug. 23 and endorsing the Republican nominee.

Harris didn't get a significant bounce from the Democratic National Convention, which concluded Aug. 22, according to the survey's results. In the last similar Michigan poll, sponsored by The Detroit News and WDIV in July, Harris had a slight lead, 41.6% to 41.3%, over Trump.

Advantages for Harris in the new round of surveying likely voters include that a majority of participants, 51%, said they had unfavorable views of Trump, and she was narrowly beating Trump among Michigan voters who said they would definitely cast ballots in the election.

Trump was winning among those who said they would probably vote. But among voters who said they definitely would vote this fall — 91% of those surveyed — Harris had a small lead over Trump, 45.7% to 44.1%, with 3.9% siding with Kennedy, according to the poll.

That dynamic — the need to spur Republican-leaning Michiganians to go to the polls — could explain why two of Trump's most recent campaign stops in the state have been in GOP-favoring areas: Howell in Livingston County on Aug. 20 and Potterville in Eaton County on Aug. 29.

'The economy, stupid'

For the new poll, Michigan voters were surveyed over the phone Aug. 26-29. Most of them, 83%, were reached over their cell phone, while 17% were contacted over a landline.

Of the participants, 40% said they tended to vote for Democratic candidates, 39% said they tended to vote for Republican candidates and 20% identified as independents.

Asked what the most important issue for the upcoming election was, 19.5% said jobs and the economy, making it the top answer. The third most frequent answer was inflation and the cost of living at 12%.

Together, the two replies were named as the key topic by about 32% of participants, nearly one in every three and up from 27% in the July survey.

"We're back to it's the economy, stupid," Czuba said of the results, referencing the famous campaign phrase used by Democratic political consultant James Carville during Democrat Bill Clinton's defeat of Republican President George H.W. Bush in 1992.

The other most frequent answers for the most important issue were abortion and women's rights in second place at 12.5% and borders and immigration at 9% in fourth.

The economy being in the spotlight could benefit Trump, a businessman who previously led a reality TV competition show called "The Apprentice." The new poll found 52% of Michigan voters said Trump would do a better job handling the nation's economy than Harris would. Meanwhile, 39% said Harris would do a better job on the economy than Trump.

Matthew Evans, a 27-year-old from Monroe, was among the poll participants who said the economy was the most important topic in the upcoming election and who favored Trump. Evans, who works in banking, said 2019, during Trump's first term in the White House, was one of the best overall years for him financially.

“My buying power has decreased over the last several years in relation to my wages,” Evans said of his reasons for backing Trump.

Michigan voters also said Trump would do better job than Harris handling the border and immigration (56%-37%) and foreign affairs (49%-44%). But they said Harris would do a better job strengthening American democracy (47%-43%) and she more closely represents their values (47.1%-45.4%).

Nichole Kolnowski, a 38-year-old from Alpena, said she plans to cast a ballot for Harris in November. The top issue in the race for her is keeping "Trump out," replied Kolnowski, who said she doesn't like the way Trump talks about women and his felony conviction.

“It’s not even about him being a Republican," Kolnowski said. "It’s him as a human being. He is a horrible person.”

The Kennedy effect

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an environmental lawyer and nephew of slain President John F. Kennedy, suspended his campaign and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23.

In Michigan, Kennedy was the nominee of the Natural Law Party, and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson's office has said his name will remain on the ballot, citing state election law. On Tuesday, a state judge rejected Kennedy's bid to have his name removed from Michigan's ballot.

In the last poll by The News and WDIV in July — before Kennedy called off his campaign — he had the support of 9.7% of Michigan voters. In the new survey, Kennedy was down to 4.7%. The Glengariff Group included Kennedy in the survey because he remains on Michigan's Nov. 5 ballot, which absentee voters can get access to in three weeks.

Trump had gotten a bump among self-described independent voters in Michigan from the July survey to the August survey, while Kennedy had experienced a dip in support among that faction, pointing to what Czuba described as a "minor Trump gain."

The other minor party candidates combined for 2.3% support in the poll with Green Party nominee Jill Stein leading that group at 1.3%.

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