New Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll finds Trump leads Harris in Georgia matchup
Published in Political News
ATLANTA — Former President Donald Trump holds a slight lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Georgia in a poll from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll released Sunday, just hours after President Joe Biden ended his presidential campaign.
The poll of likely Georgia voters, which was conducted before Biden dropped out of the contest and endorsed his vice president, shows Trump leading Harris 51% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup, just outside the margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. One percent of voters surveyed said they’d opt for other presidential candidates, while another 2% said they were undecided.
The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted by the University of Georgia’s School of Public and International Affairs between July 9 and 18 — a volatile time in the presidential contest. It came as some senior Democrats intensified their push to drive the 81-year-old Biden from the race and also encompassed parts of the Republican National Convention and the July 13 assassination attempt on Trump at a Pennsylvania rally.
The numbers show that Harris has ground to make up in Georgia, a crucial political battleground state that Biden narrowly carried four years ago, delivering the state’s 16 electoral votes to the Democrats for the first time in nearly three decades. As vice president, she has paid multiple visits to the state this year, shoring up support among Black voters.
The AJC poll found that independents, a crucial voting block in Georgia, sided with Trump by 11 percentage points. And a majority of Georgia voters, nearly 53%, said they viewed Harris unfavorably, compared to 42% who said they had a favorable impression of her. Only 5% of voters surveyed said they didn’t have an opinion. (More than 57% of voters viewed Biden unfavorably, compared to 41% who saw him favorably.)
Democrats, meanwhile, are unified behind the vice president. Nearly 92% of those polled said they backed Harris over Trump. And almost 91% of Black voters, who represent the party’s base, say they would vote for the vice president over the Republican.
Among the Black voters who say they will support the vice president is Vela McClam Mitchell of Smyrna.
“She has qualifications. She understands the people. She understands the problems that we are all encountering, and I really think that she has put in the work,” the 69-year-old said. “I’m certain she will be an excellent president.”
The AJC poll found that the race between Trump and Biden was closer than it was with Harris. In a head-to-head matchup against the current president, 48% of Georgia voters said they’d back Trump, compared to 45% who would vote for Biden and 3% another candidate. When the pollsters included independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and libertarian Chase Oliver by name, the race moved into a statistical tie between Trump and Biden, with 45% of voters picking Trump and 42% Biden.
Among Democrats, Harris had almost 85% favorability. But there are some within the party who suggested they aren’t yet enthusiastic about her candidacy.
Danise Stewart of Roswell would have voted for Biden this fall but wasn’t excited about it. But the 62-year-old white woman, who works in sales and marketing, said she was “not really happy” with the job Harris has done as vice president.
“I think she should have been down at the border more and done more,” Stewart said. “But I think she’s gonna be energized now. And if she can turn back to her tough prosecutor self, I really think that it would do well for the Democrats.”
The poll highlighted a key factor that’s buoyed Trump in Georgia. Nearly three-quarters of Republicans said they’re “very enthusiastic” about Trump’s chances. Among all voters surveyed, 50% said they viewed Trump unfavorably, and 48% said they had a favorable impression.
John Lamie, a disabled veteran from Quitman, Ga., has voted for Trump twice and says he will likely do so again this fall. Even though “Trump may not be the best person in the world,” Lamie doesn’t think Democrats will have enough time to adequately introduce a candidate to voters in time.
“I’m only going to have, what, four months to get to know them? You need to know someone intimately and know what they stand for before voting for them for president,” the Republican said.
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(Staff writers Greg Bluestein and Maya T. Prabhu contributed to this story.)
©2024 The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Visit at ajc.com. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.
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