How a new Trump administration could impact Maryland

BALTIMORE – Securing financial assistance for once-in-a-generation infrastructure projects and cash-strapped state programs is a top priority for Maryland leaders heading into the next presidential administration.

So it may not have been surprising Tuesday when President Joe Biden returned to the Port of Baltimore to highlight his administration’s infrastructure investments just one week before voters will finish selecting his successor — someone who, according to the Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris supporters in Maryland, will either mean a continued helping hand or the proverbial rug being pulled out from under them.

“My predecessor promised infrastructure week, every week, for four years — but he never built a damn thing,” Biden said, referring to former President Donald Trump during the event that otherwise mostly refrained from campaign rhetoric.

Much is at stake for Maryland heading into Tuesday’s election in which Harris and Trump remain neck-and-neck in most of the swing states.

The virtual tossup at the top of the ticket doesn’t extend to Maryland. Biden won the state by 33 percentage points four years ago — one of his strongest performances anywhere — and polls show most voters here still deeply dislike the Republican nominee.

But another Trump presidency could have an impact on Maryland in significant ways, and Democrats who lead every statewide office and almost all of its congressional districts have spent months sounding the alarm.

Tom Kennedy, the chair of the Baltimore City Republicans who thinks “a Trump presidency will be a boon to Marylanders and to all Americans,” is one of those who disagrees. He cited the death last year of Bel Air mother of five Rachel Morin, who Trump highlighted during the Republican National Convention in July, as one of the ways Trump’s immigration policies could help the state. (An undocumented immigrant from El Salvador was arrested in the killing.)

“By deporting undocumented criminals, sealing the borders, and facilitating legal immigration, we will see fewer tragedies of this kind,” Kennedy said while also listing Trump’s potential handling of energy prices and foreign wars as benefits to Marylanders.

Still, in a state with 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans, the negative vibes about Trump often far outweigh the positive.

For those with concerns, here are some of the major areas they’ve said could face problems under a new Trump administration.

Rebuilding the Key Bridge

Biden has repeatedly said the federal government should pay for all of the roughly $1.7 billion it will cost to rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge that collapsed seven months ago.

But under current law, Maryland taxpayers could pick up 10% of the bill. U.S. House Republicans have not agreed on Democratic-sponsored legislation requiring the federal government to pay 100% of the cost.

The conflict could drag into the next administration, and it could hinge on both the presidential election — where Democrats expect Harris to continue Biden’s effort and Trump to be less supportive — and which party controls the narrowly divided House and Senate chambers.

Red Line future

Transforming the Red Line from a long-stalled dream into reality is one of Democratic Gov. Wes Moore’s top priorities. Landing federal grants is a critical step in the coming years.

The light rail project — which would move east-west across Baltimore — is still in its planning phase, with dedicated funding for those plans but no money set aside for construction.

It’s expected to cost up to $7.2 billion, far more than originally planned before former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan canceled it in 2015 and returned $900 million in federal funds in the process. Hogan, the GOP nominee to succeed Democratic U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin this fall, has said he would not prioritize the project if he’s elected. His opponent, Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, supports the project and has criticized Hogan for returning the money almost a decade ago.

State transportation officials have said about half of the total project could be funded through the federal government via various competitive grants that it will soon begin applying for.

With a depleted state transportation budget that’s undergoing billions of dollars in cuts even before Red Line construction money is factored in, the federal assistance will be essential.

Maryland Transportation Secretary Paul Wiedefeld said recently that his department would have to reassess its plans for projects like the Red Line if there’s a change to a Republican administration.

“We’ll cross that bridge if we get there,” Wiedefeld said. “We can’t project that right now.”

FBI headquarters

Another monumental federal investment slated for Maryland is the new FBI headquarters in Greenbelt.

The Prince George’s County site was selected last year after a years-long lobbying effort and was a major win for Democrats close with the Biden administration.

Trump, during his presidency, preferred building a new FBI facility in downtown Washington, D.C., and congressional Republicans have railed against budget requests for planning the new Greenbelt location since its selection.

With construction not planned to begin until 2029, it’s unclear what a new Trump administration would do to try to impact the process.

Federal workers in Maryland

With more than 150,000 workers representing about 4% of all jobs, the share of Marylanders employed by the federal government is about three times the national average.

That means any large-scale cutbacks to federal agencies or extended government shutdowns caused by budget conflicts can have an outsize impact.

The longest shutdown — a 35-day slog that ended in January 2019 — happened under Trump’s watch during his arguments with the Democratic-led House over funding for a southern border wall.

During that time, the comptroller’s office estimated 172,000 Marylanders who were collectively paid $778 million in salary every two weeks — and responsible for $57.5 million in state and local income taxes — were affected. Thousands sought unemployment insurance benefits, county governments and unions hosted pop-up food pantries and state officials reported a marked decline in MARC service between Washington and Baltimore.

The American Federation of Government Employees, representing 750,000 workers, has endorsed Harris, citing Project 2025, the policy plan created by conservative activists from which Trump and others have tried to distance themselves. The union has said the plan would mean the elimination of up to 1 million federal jobs, the end of collective bargaining rights, reduced pay and more.

“It will be devastating to the federal workers, not only in Maryland but across the nation,” said Christine Surrette, the AFGE District 4 national vice president for AFGE District 4, which represents about 30,000 workers in Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina and West Virginia.

A separate AFGE Local 1923 represents about 30,000 employees nationwide but who work for a few specific agencies like the Woodlawn-based Social Security Administration and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Surrette said Project 2025 makes it clear that Trump and his team want to downsize and privatize federal agencies, stripping workers of their jobs and union-protected rights. The public should be aware, she said, that it will affect everyone from veterans working at the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to airport workers at the Transportation Security Administration.

“Whatever we went through the first time in the Trump administration, it will be 10 times worse,” Surrette said.

Other federal funding trickling down

Maryland lawmakers are staring down a host of budget problems that, Democratic officials fear, could be compounded under a Trump presidency.

Just under $19 billion flows from the federal government to the Maryland state budget, representing about a third of state revenue. In the current fiscal year, for example, federal funds were the reason behind increases to everything from broadband expansion and affordable housing to other infrastructure projects like the Howard Street Tunnel.

But the state is facing multi-billion-dollar budget deficits in the coming years even without a drop in federal spending, and some Democrats are expected to pursue revenue boosters like shifting state taxes.

Senate President Bill Ferguson, a Baltimore Democrat, was one of the loudest opponents of tax increases when some lawmakers pushed for them earlier this year. But he didn’t preclude those discussions forever, saying it depended on a number of factors in the coming months and years.

“We don’t need taxes right now in this budget to balance it and to invest in our priorities. Who knows what can happen with the economy in the next two years? Who knows what happens with the federal election in November?” Ferguson said during a March 8 press conference. “And so it’s impossible to say with 100% certainty where things stand.”

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