BALTIMORE — By about this time last year, Southwest Baltimore’s Penrose/Fayette Street Outreach neighborhood had seen 15 shootings, six of which were fatal.

This year, as of June 24, the community of aging two-story rowhouses and vacant lots stretching from Grace Medical Center to the westside MARC station saw two gun homicides and one nonfatal shooting.

It is among the Baltimore neighborhoods seeing the sharpest declines in year-over-year gun violence, one piece of a citywide effort to drive down gun violence that’s seeing results. A Baltimore Sun review of public data reflects that the first six months of 2024 likely will see the city’s lowest levels of gun violence during that period in a decade, following a more than 10% drop in gun homicides and shootings from 2022 to 2023.

The city is on pace in 2024 for fewer than 200 homicides, and, so far this year, also has seen decreases in the number of young shooting victims, after troubling spikes.

Experts say it’s difficult to pinpoint what’s driving the reductions, even as city leaders take credit for their role in the progress, citing Baltimore’s Group Violence Reduction Strategy and changes in how crimes are prosecuted.

The volunteer-led community organization Fayette Street Outreach, which has a decadeslong record of community building and improvements, sees developing relationships among residents as key.

The group hosted a block party in early June that brought together current and former residents for a day of remembrance to honor community members who’d recently passed. It was a positive outlet for grief, said Sterling Brunson, the organization’s treasurer.

“Pain is real, and sometimes people don’t get a chance to express that, whether it’s from gun violence or just living until God calls you home,” he said.

That day, Brunson said, there were no shootings he knew of in the neighborhood.

A national analysis by the Center for American Progress suggests that Baltimore’s decline in gun violence is surpassing national trends. Chandler Hall, a senior policy analyst with the center, said that could speak to the effectiveness of the city’s strategy.

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