Daniel Webster, a distinguished research scholar with the Johns Hopkins’ Center for Gun Violence Solutions, agreed. Baltimore’s “notably greater” violence declines, to Webster, suggest there’s something at play beyond the economic, cultural, political and sociological factors felt nationally.

“The fact that Baltimore is having much greater declines — notably greater declines, in my opinion — than some other places, makes me feel more comfortable as a researcher to say, ‘OK, somebody’s doing something right here. And let’s take a close look and consider what that is,'” Webster said.

Contributing factors could range from a change in leadership in the Office of the State’s Attorney to the group violence reduction strategy expanding to larger swaths of the city to greater success by Baltimore Police in closing criminal cases.

Democratic City Councilman Mark Conway, who chairs the council’s public safety committee, attributes the decline to stability in city government and Baltimore’s “focused” execution of its Group Violence Reduction Strategy, which has been tried unsuccessfully in the past.

“Having the right partners in the right places at the right time has helped just make sure that we’re a little bit more efficient and effective, and better at executing the strategies that we say we want to execute,” Conway said.

Democratic Mayor Brandon Scott, meanwhile, sees value in his administration’s comprehensive violence reduction plan, which outlined the goals and the roles of groups across the city. Once a laughingstock, the plan’s goal of 15% reductions in gun violence are being surpassed this year, Scott said.

Compared with the same period last year, gun homicides through June 30 are on pace to decline 37% and nonfatal shootings to decline 33%, based on data through June 24, the Sun analysis found.

Young people under 20 years old, specifically, have been wounded or killed by gunfire 60% less often so far in 2024 than during the same period in 2023 — from 85 gun violence victims 19 and younger in 2023 to 34 through June 24 this year.

The mayor also trumpeted the value of bringing community into the picture to co-produce public safety. Growing up in Park Heights, Scott said, it felt like people were trying to make his Northwest Baltimore neighborhood safer for — not with — him and his neighbors.

Groups on the ground, like Fayette Street Outreach, know what’s best for and what’s needed in their neighborhood, Scott said. His administration is partnering with Fayette Street Outreach on a neighborhood policing plan pilot designed to empower residents to identify and help solve neighborhood issues contributing to crime or blight.

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