Hurricane Rafael could approach Cat 3 strength before Cuban landfall; tropical storm warning remains for Florida Keys

Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel on Nov 6, 2024

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ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center said Hurricane Rafael formed Tuesday evening on its way toward Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico while tropical storm warnings were issued for the Florida Keys.

The upgrade to the season’s 11th hurricane came at a special 7:20 p.m. update, when it was located about 20 miles southeast of Little Cayman.

As of 7 a.m. Wednesday, it had grown to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds located about 90 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and 160 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba moving northwest at 14 mph.

Hurricane-force winds extend out 15 miles and tropica-storm-force winds extend out 105 miles from its center.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila as well as Florida’s Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas.

“On the forecast track, Rafael is expected move near or over the Isle of Youth later this morning or early this afternoon, and make landfallin western Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight,” forecasters said. “Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Rafael could be near major hurricane intensity before it makes landfall in Cuba later today. Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.”

The NHC’s intensity forecast has just shy of major Category 3 strength with 110 mph sustained winds and 130 mph gusts as it approaches landfall in Cuba. In the Gulf of Mexico, it’s forecast to move away from land and lose intensity.

Its wind field and northeastern quadrant rain could make an impact on Southwest Florida beginning Wednesday, but the National Weather Service in Miami gives only a 30-40% chance of tropical-storm-force winds along coastal Collier County, and 2-3 inches of rain as a worst-case scenario, totals that could be seen in the middle and lower Keys especially.

“There is a limited tornado threat, with the primary area of concern being over interior and southwest portions of the region,” NWS forecasters said. “The presence of enhanced storm relative helicity coupled with moderate instability may allow for a few tornadoes to spawn.”

Marine hazards remain the primary concern for the Gulf Coast.

Storm surge is projected to range from 1-3 feet in the Dry Tortugas and 1-2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.

Immediate concerns for the Caribbean include rainfall totals could reach more than 10 inches over Jamaica and Cuba through midweek with the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

Once it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, its final destination along the Gulf Coast remains uncertain, with the five-day forecast track still with a wide range of potential from Texas to the far western Florida panhandle.

“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” forecasters said.

Its intensity, though, should drop from hurricane strength before landfall with drier air and stronger vertical wind shear present in the central Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC also continued to track a trough of low pressure that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms to the east-northeast of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands.

“This system is expected to move generally westward during the next few days, and an area of low pressure could form near the northern Leeward Islands tonight or Thursday,” forecasters said. “Afterward, some gradual development of this system is possible toward the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend while it moves near or to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and approaches the Southeast Bahamas.”

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next two days and 30% in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has now produced 17 named storms, with 11 of the systems having grown into hurricanes, three of which have struck Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The official hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

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