Tropical storm won't hit Georgia, but rain ahead of it could cause flooding

Most of Georgia has gone more than a month without any significant rain. Now, a tropical storm brewing in the Caribbean appears set to finally bring moisture to the state, and the National Weather Service is warning the system’s heavy rains could overwhelm the area’s parched soils and lead to flooding.

The forecast rain is associated with Tropical Storm Rafael, which was approaching hurricane strength as it churned toward western Cuba on Tuesday. The storm itself is not forecast to strike Georgia, but the system is expected to funnel tropical moisture into the state as it moves toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, the NWS said.

The rain will begin falling Wednesday afternoon and continue into early Thursday. Atlanta is expected to see some rain, but the heaviest precipitation totals are expected south of the I-85 corridor in places like Macon, Dublin, Statesboro and Savannah.

Portions of east and central Georgia could receive between 1 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 5 inches or more possible. The NWS’s Tuesday forecast discussion warned the heavy rain could produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

All but a tiny slice of deep South Georgia is currently abnormally dry or in moderate drought, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor map released last week. The rain will help alleviate those moisture deficits and help farmers’ crispy pastures, but too much rain in a short period of time could be problematic, Pam Knox, an agricultural climatologist at the University of Georgia, wrote in a blog post.

“While Georgia desperately needs the rain due to the drought, this much falling over just a couple of days may result in flooding once the soil becomes saturated,” Knox wrote.

More rain is possible across large portions of the state through the weekend, but the threat of flooding should drop off sharply after Thursday morning, NWS said.

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