Tropical Storm Rafael forecast to become hurricane on path to Gulf of Mexico

ORLANDO, Fla. — The National Hurricane Center forecasts Tropical Storm Rafael to grow into the season’s 11th hurricane on Tuesday as it moves toward Cuba with winds and storm surge expected to only sideswipe Florida as it moves into the Gulf of Mexico.

As of the NHC’s 7 a.m. advisory, Rafael was located about 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica and 230 miles southeast of Grand Cayman moving northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 105 miles from its center

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands and Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas and the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

“On the forecast track, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, be near or over the Cayman Islands tonight, and be near or over western Cuba on Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is forecast to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands with further strengthening before it makes landfall in Cuba.”

The NHC’s intensity forecast has it reaching Category 1 strength with 90 mph sustained winds and 115 mph gusts with its center about 100 miles west of the Dry Tortugas by 1 a.m. Thursday, although the cone of uncertainty falls close to the island.

Its wind field and northeastern quadrant rain could make an impact on Southwest Florida beginning Wednesday, but the National Weather Service in Melbourne gives only a 30-40% chance of tropical-storm-force winds along coastal Collier County, and 2-3 inches of rain as a worst-case scenario, totals that could be seen in the middle and lower Keys especially.

“There is a limited tornado threat, with the primary area of concern being over interior and southwest portions of the region,” NWS forecasters said. “The presence of enhanced storm relative helicity coupled with moderate instability may allow for a few tornadoes to spawn.”

Marine hazards remain the primary concern for the Gulf Coast.

Storm surge is projected to range from 1-3 feet in the Dry Tortugas and 1-2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.

Immediate concerns for the Caribbean include rainfall totals could reach more than 10 inches over Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week with the threat of flash flooding and mudslides.

Once it makes it into the Gulf of Mexico, its final destination along the Gulf Coast remains uncertain, with the five-day forecast track still with a wide range of potential from Texas to the fart western Florida panhandle.

“It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” forecasters said.

Its intensity, though, should drop from hurricane strength before landfall with drier air and stronger vertical wind shear present in the central Gulf of Mexico.

The NHC also continued to track a potential system that could form north of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands in a couple days.

“Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has now produced 17 named storms, with 11 of the systems having grown into hurricanes, three of which have struck Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The official hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.