The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Rafael formed in the Caribbean on Monday, and is forecast to intensify into a hurricane as it heads north toward the Gulf of Mexico.

As of the NHC’s 7 p.m. EST advisory, Rafael was located about 150 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 370 miles southeast of Grand Cayman moving north-northwest at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out up to 105 miles from its center.

A hurricane warning is already in effect for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm warning is in place for Jamaica. A hurricane watch is in effect for the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge as well as the Dry Tortugas.

“On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica during the overnight period, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Steady to rapid strengthening is forecasted and the system could become a hurricane on Tuesday.”

Rainfall totals could reach more than 9 inches over Jamaica and Cuba through mid-week, and then spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States in the latter half of the week.

Storm surge is projected to range from 1-3 feet in the Dry Tortugas and 1-2 feet in the lower Florida Keys.

Forecast models have shifted more to the west since the weekend with the center of the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico still as a Category 1 hurricane, and now growing to a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds by Thursday, but losing steam before landfall likely along the Texas or Louisiana coast, although the western Florida panhandle remains within the cone of uncertainty.

“When the system reaches the Gulf of Mexico, the model solutions diverge, which appears to be due to differences in the steering patterns and vertical depth of the storm,” forecasters said in the official storm discussion. “The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and remains close to the various consensus models. However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence.”

The National Weather Service in Miami forecasts more than 2 inches of rain on Tuesday evening for parts of South Florida with windy conditions. The NWS in Melbourne said 1-2 inches are likely Wednesday for Central Florida.

“Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday night,” forecasters said. “It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast.”

The NHC also continued to track a potential system that could form north of the Caribbean’s Leeward Islands in a few days.

“Some slow development of this system is possible towards the latter part of this week as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.

And what had developed into Tropical Storm Patty lost its tropical characteristics as it continued its speedy path toward Spain in the far eastern Atlantic.

In the NHC’s final 10 a.m. advisory Monday, the remnants of Patty were located about 585 miles east of the Azores moving east-northeast at 17 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph.

It will still bring significant rainfall to parts of the Iberian Peninsula with up to 5 inches in portions of Portugal and western Spain.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season has now produced 17 named storms, with 10 of the systems having grown into hurricanes, three of which have struck Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The official hurricane season runs through Nov. 30.

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