Forecasters are watching two disturbances. One has a high tropical depression probability

David J. Neal, Miami Herald on Nov 3, 2024

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Expect a disturbance in the Caribbean Sea to become tropical depression by Tuesday as it brings rainstorms to the western Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday in its 7 a.m. Atlantic update.

There’s another disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean, but that’s not expected to become anything more this week, if ever.

Here’s what you need to know.

Disturbance AL97

This disturbance is described as “a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea” and is given a formation chance of 80% in the next two days and 90% in the next seven days.

“Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea,” the hurricane center said. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba.”

Disturbance 2

This is sitting east of the southeastern Bahamas and is expected to be swallowed by the disturbance above, which is why its development chance is put at 10%.

“Slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba,” the hurricane center said. “Regardless of formation, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, and the southeastern Bahamas.”

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