'Window is closing' for potential system to form a storm near the Caribbean this week

Alex Harris, Miami Herald on Oct 16, 2024

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MIAMI — Computer models and the National Hurricane Center are backing off the idea that a new storm might form near the Caribbean this week.

The hurricane center lowered the chances for either of the two tropical disturbances on the map to strengthen into a tropical depression anytime soon.

As of Wednesday morning, the potential system in the Atlantic had only a 40% chance of developing in the next seven days and a 30% chance of developing in the next two days.

The system — in the middle of the open Atlantic — was already surrounded by dry air, which hinders storm development. Forecasters expect it to head west toward the Caribbean, where it might find better conditions.

But in the last few days, conditions in front of the storm changed. An upper low, bringing storm-destabilizing wind shear and even more dry air, is approaching. There’s a small window of better conditions near the Virgin Islands, which the storm might encounter on Thursday or Friday, but “even that window is closing,” noted Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel.

At this point, many computer models either take the system straight across the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic and Cuba, or dissolve it entirely before it gets close.

“There really isn’t a window into FL from the east,” Cantore wrote on X. “Still monitoring, but not impressed which is a good thing.”

Another one

The other disturbance has an even lower chance of strengthening — 20% in the next seven days and a 10% chance in the next two.

Forecasters said the system, currently off the coast of Central America, has a slim shot at forming a tropical depression if it stays over water. But many computer models take it right back into the coast, dropping rain on multiple countries.

“Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible across portions of Central America later this week,” they wrote.

The next name on the list is Nadine.