Tropical Storm Francine forecast to grow into hurricane as it turns toward northern Gulf Coast

ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to grow into a hurricane Tuesday and shift toward a landfall on the north Gulf Coast in Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of the NHC’s 8 a.m. advisory, the center of Francine was located about 125 miles southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande River and 395 miles south-southwest of Cameron, Louisiana, with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph and moving north at 5 mph.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 140 miles.

A hurricane warning has been issued for the Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass east to Grand Isle.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for Morgan City to Grand Isle, Louisiana; from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass; from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield; and La Pesca to the mouth of the Rio Grande.

A tropical storm watch is in effect for Barra del Tordo to La Pesca, Mexico; Port Mansfield to High Island, Texas; east of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River, including metropolitan New Orleans; Lake Pontchartrain; and Lake Maurepas.

A storm surge warning is in effect for High Island, Texas to the mouth of the Mississippi River; and Vermilion Bay. A storm surge watch is in effect for mouth of the Mississippi River to the Mississippi/Alabama Border; Lake Maurepas; and Lake Pontchartrain.

The system is forecast to slowly continue in a north-northwest motion toward the Texas and Mexico coast on Monday, but then shift to the northeast and pick up stream.

“On the forecast track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday,” forecasters said. “Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.”

The forecast predicts it to grow into a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph sustained winds and 120 mph gusts before making landfall somewhere in a cone of uncertainty that runs along the Texas and Louisiana coast in between Houston and New Orleans.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Francine is expected to bring total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, into Thursday morning. This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban flooding.

The biggest storm surge threat could bring 5-10 feet higher levels than normal from Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay and 4-7 feet from Port Fouchon to the mouth of the Mississippi with lower surges to the east and west.

“The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves,” the NHC stated. “Storm surge is not expected to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there may be some overtopping of local levees.”

Some minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in areas that see onshore winds while swells will continue to spread across the northwestern Gulf coastline through midweek.

The NHC is also tracking two Atlantic systems with the chance to develop into tropical depressions or storms. After Francine, the next names on the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season list are Gordon and Helene.

One is an elongated area of low pressure in the central tropical Atlantic that limited shower activity.

Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for some slight development during the next couple of days, but a tropical depression could still form during that time while the system meanders over the central tropical Atlantic,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 40% chance to develop in the next two days and 40% in the next seven.

The second is a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands expected to merge in a couple of days with a strong tropical wave that emerged off the coast of western Africa.

Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph,” forecasters said.

The NHC gives it a 30% chance to develop in the next two days and 70% in the next seven.

The formation of Tropical Storm Francine marks the end of a nearly monthlong lull between the formation of named storms as Ernesto, which eventually grew into a hurricane, having formed as a tropical storm on Aug. 12.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.

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